Compared to last week’s bumper slate of event risk, this week will be considerably more subdued, influenced not only by limited global asset drivers but also by liquidity thinning ahead of the long Easter weekend.
Core PCE data
The headline event for the week will be the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation), but given that it is released on Good Friday at 12:30 pm GMT, the response to this release could be minimal. The market consensus at the time of writing indicates we will see a slight softening in the MoM print: a rise of +0.3% in February from +0.4% in January, while the YoY release (also for February) is expected to rise +2.8%, matching January. At the headline level, PCE data (MoM) is anticipated to show a slight increase of +0.4% in February from January’s +0.3% reading, along with the YoY print expected to also show a marginal increase from +2.4% to +2.5%. You will recall that the FOMC meeting wrapped up last week, leaving the benchmark lending rate at 5.25%-5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting (this is the highest rate in more than two decades). Although a no-change was widely expected, the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed that Fed officials continue to foresee three rate cuts this year (there was speculation of a potential downshift to two rate cuts, given the latest batch of inflation numbers). The March economic projections also revealed an upward revision in Core PCE inflation for 2024 from 2.4% (December 2023 projection) to 2.6%, though FOMC participants were unchanged in their projections for 2025 and 2026 at 2.2% and 2.0% (the Fed’s inflation target), respectively.
Other data this week:
US durable goods orders data for February will be released on Tuesday at 12:30 pm GMT. MoM, the current median estimate suggests an improvement from January to February from -6.1% to +1.3%, with durable goods orders (excluding transportation) also expected to show an increase on a MoM basis from -0.3% to +0.4%.
US consumer confidence (Conference Board) for March will be released on Tuesday at 2:00 pm GMT. Expectations indicate that consumer confidence will decrease marginally to 106.5 from 106.7 in February.
US growth GDP data (third estimate) for Q4 2023 will make the airwaves on Thursday at 12:30 pm GMT. Based on the second estimate, real GDP increased to an annualised rate of 3.2% in Q4 2023, with the third estimate suggesting that Q4 real GDP will remain unchanged at 3.2%.
In Asia Pac, Wednesday welcomes the Aussie CPI monthly indicator at 12:30 am GMT. January’s print came in unchanged from December 2023 at +3.4% on a YoY basis, though economists’ estimates suggest inflation to increase slightly at +3.6% in February.
G10 FX (five-day change):
This material on this website is intended for illustrative purposes and general information only. It does not constitute financial advice nor does it take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Commission, interest, platform fees, dividends, variation margin and other fees and charges may apply to financial products or services available from FP Markets. The information in this website has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs before making any decision about whether to acquire or dispose of any financial product. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are derivatives and can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment and you must be able to meet all margin calls as soon as they are made. When trading CFDs you do not own or have any rights to the CFDs underlying assets.
FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice from an appropriately qualified person before deciding to invest in or dispose of a derivative. A Product Disclosure Statement for each of the financial products is available from FP Markets can be obtained either from this website or on request from our offices and should be considered before entering into transactions with us. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd (ABN 16 112 600 281, AFS Licence No. 286354).
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1300 on persistent USD weakness
EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.1300 on Wednesday, supported by a sustained weakness in the US Dollar. Renewed trade jitters, along with fresh concerns about the US fiscal health, add further pressure on the Greenback. Markets await comments from central bankers.
GBP/USD retreats from multi-year highs, stays near 1.3400
GBP/USD retreats from the multi-year high it set near 1.3470 earlier in the day but manages to stabilize near 1.3400. The data from the UK showed on Wednesday that the annual CPI inflation jumped to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, boosting Pound Sterling with the immediate reaction.
Gold reclaims $3,300 on rising geopolitical tensions and US fiscal woes
Gold breaks higher on Wednesday and trades above $3,300, fueled by concerns that tensions in the Middle East might spiral out of control, with CNN reporting that Israel might target nuclear sites in Iran. Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggles to find demand amid debt concerns, helping XAU/USD stretch higher.
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu Price Forecast: DOGE and SHIB show early signs of a bullish breakout
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu show early signs of a potential rally as both meme coins stabilize at key support levels. On-chain metrics for dog-themed meme coins show positive funding rates and dormant activity, reinforcing bullish sentiment. The technical outlook also supports the case for double-digit gains.
FOMO vs fundamentals: Retail buys the dip, institutional investors stay cautious
Retail optimism is rising, but institutions are still treading carefully amid lingering macro and earnings risks. Policy and fiscal uncertainty remain elevated, with trade tensions, U.S. debt concerns, and a cautious Fed dominating the backdrop.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.