Quadruple witching drives down markets

USD: Jun '25 is Down at 103.630.  

Energies: May '25 Crude is Up at 68.81.

Financials: The Jun '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 20 ticks and trading at 116.24.

Indices: The Mar '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 275 ticks Higher and trading at 5787.00.

Gold: The Apr'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 3031.70.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Up which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia traded Mixed.  All of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible challenges to traders

• Flash Manufacturing PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Flash Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.  This is Major.

• FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 1:45 PM EST.  This is Major.

• FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 3:10 PM EST.  This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 year (ZN) to the 2 year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.  

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT veered Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with no economic news pending at that time.  The Dow moved Lower at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Lower at 8:30 AM EST and the ZT moved Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $7.625.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Jun '25 and the Dow is still Mar '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Jun 2025 - 3/21/25

Dow - Mar 2025- 3/21/25

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Downside bias as both the USD and the Bonds were trading Higher Friday morning and that usually represents a Down Day.  The markets didn't disappoint as all major indices closed Lower on Friday.  The Dow dropped 336 points and the other indices lost ground on Friday.  Today our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Well, it looks like we didn't have a continuation of Wednesday's upswing on Friday.  The indices all traded Lower as expected.  Today we have Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services.