Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
-
Final inflation footprint in Croatia arrived at 4.1% y/y in March.
-
Core inflation in Poland landed at 4.6% y/y in March.
-
In Czechia, industrial producer prices decreased by 0.1% m/m and remained at the same level y/y.
Economic developments
Slovakia presented its Index Prosperity on Tuesday that ranks European countries within four categories: Economy, Households, Society, Education and Environment. From our region Slovenia ranked first, Czechia and Poland are on 13th and 16th place respectively and other CEE countries placed at the end. Despite rather low rank, there are three main areas, in which the region excels. These are long-term growth, labor market outcomes and income equality. Long term perspective clearly shows how prosperous the region has been over last 20 years and most recently in the post-pandemic era. Unemployment rate in all CEE countries is below the EU average at 6%. Czechia and Poland have the lowest unemployment rates in the whole European Union. CEE countries also rank high in income equality as measured by Gini coefficient. Interestingly the perception is quite different as very high share of society considers income differences as too large.
Market developments
Today, Croats will cast their votes in parliamentary elections. The ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led by incumbent Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic is challenged by an alliance of centrist and left-wing parties informally led by President Zoran Milanovic and his Social Democratic Party (SDP). The Polish zloty and Hungarian forint weakened against the euro more visibly since the beginning of the week. EURHUF moved toward 395 while EURPLN is at 4.36. On the other hand, the Czech koruna has strengthened. Romanian Board Member of the central bank Popa said on Tuesday that May’s interest rate cut remains uncertain. He added that central bank may need more time to begin monetary easing. In his view, the progress in inflation fight was enough in February, leaving March as the only month with substantial progress. On the bond market, the long-term yields keep moving north this week.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays weak near 1.0700 ahead of key EU inflation, GDP data
EUR/USD is keeping the red near 1.0700, undermined by a broad US Dollar rebound and a mixed market mood early Tuesday. Germany's Retail Sales rebound fail to impress the Euro ahead of key Eurozone inflation and GDP data releases.
GBP/USD remains pressured toward 1.2500 on US Dollar rebound
GBP/USD is extending losses toward 1.2500 in European trading on Tuesday. A cautious risk tone and a decent US Dollar comeback weigh negatively on the pair. The focus now shifts to mid-tier US data amid a data-light UK docket.
Gold price remains depressed near $2,320 amid stronger USD, ahead of US macro data
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed heading into the European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range, just above the $2,320 level.
BNB price risks a 10% drop as Binance founder and ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao eyes Tuesday sentencing
Binance Coin price is dumping, with the one-day chart showing a defined downtrend. While the broader market continues to bleed, things could get worse for BNB price ahead of Binance executive Changpeng Zhao sentencing on Tuesday, April 30.
Data fuels China optimism
China's factory activity has expanded for a second consecutive month, marking the best streak in over a year and fueling optimism for the sustainability of the world's second-largest economy's recovery.