Proposed agreement propels markets

USD: Dec '25 is Down at 99.440.  

Energies: Dec '25 Crude is Up at 60.50.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 5 ticks and trading at 116.27.

Indices: The Dec '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 52 ticks Higher and trading at 6843.75.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 4148.60.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.   Currently all of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible challenges to traders                                                

• NFIB Small Business Index is out at 6AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 10:25 AM EST Major.
• Bank Holiday due to Veterans Day in the USA.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST with no news to speak of.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 12 plus ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is now Dec '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Dec 25 - 11/10/25

Dow - Dec 2025- 11/10/25

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow climbed 382 points, and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

On Sunday evening a compromised was reached with the GOP to hopefully end the shutdown.  It wasn't really a compromise but more of a cave in as 8 democrats agreed to side with republicans in the Senate to start the process of reopening the government.  There was no agreement to fund the ACA.  Supposedly a separate vote will happen in December.   Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?