Producer prices end their dynamic fall

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Real retail sales grew 4.1% y/y in Poland in April, slightly below market expectations.
Unemployment rate in Hungary for April stood at 4.4%.
At noon CET in Serbia real wage growth in March will be published.

Economic developments

The growth of producer prices seems to be bottoming out at the turn of the first and second quarter of 2024, after a very dynamic fall. The development of producer prices in the entire industry goes hand in hand with the development of energy prices (one of the main industrial groupings). The recent uptick in growth dynamics is visible in both sectors. As producer prices are considered to indicate inflation development, we may see the end of fast disinflation of the headline figures in the months to come, as the contribution of energy will no longer be negative.

Market developments

Romania held a successful T-Bills auction on Thursday, selling RON 3.4 billion, which was way above the target. The long-term yields moved up this week, mimicking developments in the core markets. CEE currencies have been holding relatively stable as the moves were rather marginal either way. Czech President Pavel was injured after a motorcycle crash and has been hospitalized, but his injuries are not serious. In Slovakia, the assailant charged with shooting Prime Minister Fico said he had no intention to kill and that he was acting alone. He admitted frustration with government policies, especially the stance on military support to Ukraine.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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