Perspectives of Friday

BNP Paribas Team BNP Paribas

Global: Multiple shocks test resilience

The resilience of the global economy is tested by multiple shocks: rising Covid-19 infections in China, the war in Ukraine, the huge increase of several commodity prices, the prospect of aggressive monetary tightening in the US.

The significant carry-over effect from last year is an element of support when assessing the outlook for annual growth this year. In addition, the drivers of final demand were supportive at the start of the year and in many cases still are. High inflation is weighing on consumer sentiment in the US and the Eurozone but fortunately, thus far, employment expectations of Eurozone companies remain at a very high level and in the US, the labour market remains very strong. It will play a fundamental role in shaping expectations about the growth and hence monetary policy outlook.

US: Stress tests

With inflation soaring, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would accelerate the process of normalising its monetary policy. Held near the lower zero bound until March, the key policy rate should rise to roughly 2% or even higher by the end of the year. The Fed will also reduce the size of its balance sheet. Operating at full employment, the US economy seems to have recovered sufficiently from the health crisis to pass muster. Yet it is still sensitive to credit conditions and is not immunised against the impact of the war in Ukraine.

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BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200 ahead of China's trade data

AUD/USD sits above 0.7200 in the Asian session on Tuesday, near its highest level since May 14. The US Dollar stays under pressure as a rallying Japanese Yen outweighs support from hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical tensions. This, along with firming expectations for another RBA rate hike later this month, acts as a tailwind for the Aussie ahead of China's trade balance data.

USD/JPY: Heavy near 153.50 as BoJ rate hike bets boost JPY

USD/JPY is sitting at six-month lows near 153.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, as Japan's upbeat wage growth data and Q2 GDP revision cement bets on a BoJ rate hike next week and continue to boost the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, US Dollar selling remains unabated despite hawkish Fed expectations and rising geopolitical tensions, lending additional support to the pair.

Gold rebounds toward $4,450 as USD weakness counters Fed hike bets

Gold rebounds toward $4,450 in the Asian session on Tuesday and, for now, appears to have snapped a two-day losing streak as a rallying Japanese Yen keeps the US dollar under pressure. However, hawkish Fed bets, along with rising US-Iran tensions, could support the USD and cap the non-yielding bullion as traders await US inflation figures later this week.

Bitcoin whale profits hit record $9.07B, long-term holders increase on-chain activity

Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term holder (STH) whales have reached a record level of unrealized profit, raising concerns that increased profit-taking could put pressure on the market during its current consolidation phase.

Why Oil is setting up for its most explosive move in years

The biggest Commodity trade of the year may be hiding in plain sight. Gold, Silver, Copper and Agricultural Commodities have already delivered some of the most dramatic repricing events of 2026, rewarding traders who recognized early that scarcity, geopolitical fragmentation and constrained supply were becoming dominant market forces.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.