Payrolls beat on Friday lifts Fed Dec hike odds near 77%

EU mid-market update: Jensen's personal affair with 'Chinese spy' complicates U.S-China relationship; Payrolls beat on Friday lifts Fed Dec hike odds near 77%.

The brief

- Nvidia fell 5-6% after Jensen Huang admitted to an affair with a former Megaspeed executive whom US intelligence considers a Chinese asset. Board has opened a probe, and earnings come Nov 17th. Chip peers rose, so investors are treating it as an Nvidia problem rather than an AI-demand one. Strong payrolls (165K) lifted the odds of a December Fed hike to about 77%, with the 2-year yield at 4.52%. French Senate takes up the social security bill today ahead of the Nov 26 deadline, which could mean Article 49.3 or a first-ever budget by ordinance. Elsewhere, Trump named Stephen Miller chief of staff, China extended its tariff truce, and Crédit Agricole proposed a merger with Banco BPM. UniCredit Q3 profit beat consensus and raised FY26 guidance as it nears control of Commerzbank.

Observations in full

- Nvidia’s chief executive is now a governance risk for the stock, eight days before earnings. On Sunday Huang told staff “I was unfaithful to my wife”, disclosing a relationship that the NYT, which first reported it on Oct 29, says involved Alice Huang. She is a former executive of Singapore-based Megaspeed whom US intelligence concluded was a Chinese asset. On Friday the FT reported that a government memo described the relationship as romantic. The board appointed an independent committee of directors with outside counsel to examine the relationship and whether company secrets or national security were compromised. It said it has “no reason to believe” either was, and expressed confidence in Huang, 63, who stays in charge “without interruption”. Nvidia was down 5.8% at €157.84 on Tradegate ahead of the US open. Perpetuals on Hyperliquid and Blue Ocean’s overnight market had it near $180.30, about 3.4% below Friday’s $186.64 close and about 22% below the October peak. ---The dates now cluster: Q3 earnings on Nov 17, a closed-door briefing on Nov 18 requested by the Republican chairs of the House Foreign Affairs, Intelligence and China committees, and a Democratic Congress from January. Sen. Coons said “Congress will investigate and get answers”. The NYT says Trump was briefed on the intelligence about a year ago and took no action. He now says Huang should stay and might join an Asia trip that could include Xi and Putin. That ties the investigation to the administration’s record on China chip policy, including the decision to allow H200 sales. Megaspeed was examined in 2024-25 for helping Chinese buyers get around export controls, claims Nvidia says it has “debunked”. The scandal gives fresh support to bills requiring location verification for exported chips, which would impose new compliance costs on every regional cloud customer. The volume traced through intermediaries is near 0.2% of market cap, so the exposure is policy access and management credibility rather than lost units. Early effects are showing. Huang’s daughter Madison, an Nvidia executive, cancelled a Seoul visit, and Korean AI chipmaker Rebellions cited “unavoidable internal circumstances at Nvidia”. NH Investment sees AMD gaining attention and possible delays to China shipments. Ackman and Musk publicly backed Huang, and Beijing called the reports “groundless speculation”.

- Asian suppliers rose on Monday even as Nvidia fell. TSMC rose 6.5%, SK hynix 4.7% and Samsung 2.9%, extending Friday’s recovery, in which AMD rose 11%, Micron 5.1% and eight large chip stocks recovered about 36% of Thursday’s loss. Investors are treating the Huang affair as a risk to Nvidia’s margins and policy access, while the supply chain still sells to whichever accelerator wins, and Seoul says its contracted GPU deliveries are unaffected. Taiwan’s October trade surplus of $27.9B against $23.1B expected confirms that hardware exports were accelerating into the selloff. The weak point is rented capacity. Microsoft is winding down a 2023 deal to rent Oracle AI capacity built on older Nvidia chips and, according to CNBC, is “consolidating” its neocloud relationships, a week after Oracle lost Tencent’s $7B lease. The Information reports Anthropic will go ahead with its IPO roadshow this week, which puts its pricing in the same week as Nvidia’s earnings and Huang’s briefing. OpenAI’s CFO said its current round values the company at $1.25T pre-money, with an IPO still targeted for 2027. The NYT’s tally now has voters rejecting data-centre projects in 40 of 41 local ballot measures. Power names gained on Friday: Oklo rose 22.7%, and PPL sees $6-7B of extra regulated generation investment through 2032.

- Payrolls gave the Fed a reason to hike in December. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165K against 65K expected, private payrolls rose 159K, and two-month revisions added 84K. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y, against 2.9% expected. The 2-year yield rose about 5bps to 4.52%, the 10-year to 4.87% and the 30-year to about 5.28%. Odds of a hike at the Dec 8-9 meeting rose to 76.8%. Daly, a dove, said further tightening will be needed, a day after Williams said it was time to “gather more information”. Underemployment is the soft spot. U6 rose to 7.9% from 7.6%, with involuntary part-time work up 339K, so employers are cutting hours while adding jobs. Consumer credit rose $27.8B against $13.8B expected. Warsh’s Fed, at 3.75-4.00% after its September hike, would be hiking just as the Dec 11 funding deadline approaches.

- France’s 2027 budget moves to the Senate after the Assembly rejected both bills, and the deadline that matters is Nov 26. The Senate opens the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) at 15:00 Paris time today. It works from the government’s original text, because the Assembly rejected the revenue section 115-1 with 22 abstentions on Oct 23, so it never debated spending. Sittings run on Nov 9-10 and 12-18, skipping Armistice Day. The 50-day constitutional limit expires at midnight on Nov 26. After that the government can put the bill into force by ordinance, a procedure never used in the Fifth Republic, or use Article 49.3 at a later Assembly reading. The bill targets a social security deficit of €12.7B in 2027, against €21.8B expected for 2026. Minister Rist says the Assembly’s amendments would have pushed it to about €24B. The Senate will try to restore what the Assembly struck out: a 2.05% levy on mutual insurers worth €1.1B, a €3.7B reform of employer contribution relief, an extension of the soda tax to biscuits and pastries, a partial pension freeze (full indexation only below €1,260 a month), and a +2.1% cap on health spending that includes €2B of savings on sick leave. The state budget is in the same position. On Wednesday the Assembly rejected its revenue section 458-0, again before reaching spending. Minister Amiel says the amendments would raise the 2027 deficit to 5.9% of GDP, against a 5.0% target from 5.4% this year that relied on €43B of savings. Lecornu’s office says “the time for compromise will come after the Senate’s reading”, with talks resuming in December. A centre-right Senate will send back a stricter text than any Assembly majority will vote for, which points to either 49.3 and a censure test that depends on the Socialists or the RN, or a first-ever budget by ordinance. Either outcome hands the ratings agencies a precedent: Fitch already has France on negative outlook, and bond buyers are still absorbing weak growth data (a 46.2 services PMI and a 0.5% fall in September industrial production).

- In his 60 Minutes interview Trump moved toward the centre on immigration and AI, a day after naming Stephen Miller chief of staff. He said his border policy “might be too tough”, that “it hurt me” because “we also took people that had good jobs”, and placed the maximalists who “would like everybody taken out” on the “pretty far right”. That is the camp Miller has led. He then offered Democrats a deal: “get the killers out… the drug dealers out. But let the people that are here… for ten and 15 years, work a deal for them”, calling immigration “something that’s actually doable”. He said he could “very easily” avoid insulting Democrats for six months, a period that covers the Dec 11 funding deadline, a likely debt-limit fight and the new Congress. He “can’t imagine” being impeached again, while Polymarket prices impeachment articles at 60%. A legalisation deal would add labour supply just as the Fed sees a payroll breakeven of only 5-10K and is preparing a December hike on 3.1% wage growth, and it would ease shortages in construction trades. Electricians are the bottleneck for data-centre builds that more capital cannot fix. On personnel, he said there will be “maybe a few changes”. Asked whether Rubio stays, he said “I think so”, weaker than Rubio’s own pledge to stay “till the end”, and it leaves the Pentagon as the most likely post to change.

- On the war and markets, Trump defended the record while leaving room to pull back. He called renewed fighting with Iran “highly unlikely”, depending on “whether or not they sign a very strong agreement”, but said he would attack again with “an emphatic yes… We won that war”. He blamed the midterm losses on voters who “didn’t like the war”, rising petrol prices and “a great dislike, incredibly, for Israel”. That is the same diagnosis Vance used to break with him, and the cue arrives on the Nov 9 new moon that officials had flagged for strikes. On AI he said the risk can be managed and “I don’t mind guardrails”. Last December he signed an executive order to override state AI laws, so after the Senate’s 99-1 vote, 40 of 41 local data-centre measures voting no and the Huang investigation, federal AI rules now have a path through a Democratic Congress. He expects Ukraine to take a “different shape” after the war ends, a day before the Nov 10-11 Abu Dhabi talks, which points to territorial terms. He blamed the selloff on Democrats (“we lost… $3 trillion”) and called the record stock market and 401(k) highs a messaging failure because “the press doesn’t cover positive news for me”.

- Anthropic’s roadshow window is the market’s test of how large lab commitments have become. The revised public S-1 discloses $895.4B of infrastructure commitments and Q3 revenue of $16.96B, with sequential growth slowing. That sits against reported end-October ARR above $80B and a target valuation of about $1.5T. Recent reports put the roadshow launch in the Nov 9-11 window, and Reuters says November timing is in doubt, so no pricing date should be treated as fixed. The $895.4B commitment figure is the number credit markets will compare with this week’s other funding stories: Oracle losing two capacity customers, Microsoft pruning neoclouds, and SoftBank defaulting on turbine orders, as Musk describes it.

- China extended the Busan truce, and its exporters are holding dollars. Beijing will suspend the extra 24% tariff on US goods for two more months from Nov 10, keep the 10% tariff, and extend the suspension of port fees on US ships to Jan 10, 2027. Bessent told He Lifeng that China must honour its commitments “fully, immediately”. Chinese banks have raised dollar deposit rates, sometimes above 4%, as exporters hold dollars instead of converting them. The fix weakened to 6.7188, and reserves fell to $3.405T. October CPI was 0.7% against 0.8% expected. Trump’s plan to meet Xi with Huang possibly in the delegation would put Nvidia’s China access on the summit agenda while Congress investigates him.

- Washington: Miller replaces Wiles as Congress returns. Stephen Miller becomes chief of staff today, the first post-midterm reshuffle and a move toward a harder line on immigration, while Rubio has said he will stay. Congress returns with funding due to lapse after Dec 11. California voters are projected to have rejected Proposition 40, a state wealth tax on billionaires, so the 2029 tax risk centres on the corporate rate and pass-through cap. The Los Angeles port security strike was deferred, with talks extended to Nov 20.

- European banks: Crédit Agricole moves on Banco BPM as UniCredit beats. Crédit Agricole, which owns close to 30% of Banco BPM, proposed an exploratory merger built around Banco BPM, with Crédit Agricole holding about 45% of the combined bank. The proposal follows UniCredit’s withdrawn bid for Banco BPM and the end of Banco BPM’s talks with MPS. UniCredit reported Q3 net income of €3.26B against €2.8B expected and raised its FY net guidance. UCB and Biogen’s Phase 3 lupus results for dapirolizumab pegol showed a 61.2% response against 43.2%. Germany’s September trade surplus narrowed to €15.6B against €19.4B expected. De Cos and Knot are the only candidates for ECB president.

-Asia-Pacific. ANZ guided FY27 expenses flat at its A$11.26B pro forma base and kept its 12% RoTE target for FY28. Philippine Q3 GDP grew 2.1% y/y against 3.1% expected. New Zealand’s election is too close to call. RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said AI may be raising financial stability risks.

- This week turns on two dates, CPI tomorrow and CoreWeave after the close, before Nvidia’s week starts. October CPI at 08:30 ET on Tuesday is the last major inflation print before the Dec 8-9 FOMC, with hike odds near 77% after payrolls. The oil market behind it is split. Gulf producers are discounting crude as flows return, while damaged refining capacity, freight costs and depleted emergency stocks keep diesel tight. Headline energy may cool while core goods and transport services still carry diesel costs. CoreWeave reports on Tuesday after the close. It is the first large neocloud to report since Microsoft began “consolidating” those relationships and winding down its Oracle rental, so utilisation, GPU lease pricing, customer concentration and debt costs will show whether the shrinking of rented capacity has reached the leading independent provider. Huang’s response to the House chairs is due Nov 11, Applied Materials reports on Nov 12 (fab capex and China tool demand), and Nvidia reports on Nov 17 after the close. The requested Nov 18 briefing falls on the first day of APEC in Shenzhen (Nov 18-19), the likeliest venue for the Xi meeting Trump said Huang might attend, so Nvidia’s CEO is expected in a closed congressional briefing and at a summit where his China access is negotiated in the same 48 hours. The FOMC minutes are also out on Nov 18.

- Cross-asset: Huang’s admission and the board probe put a governance discount on Nvidia (-5.8% in Europe, perpetuals near $180) ahead of earnings on Nov 17, the House briefing on Nov 18 and the Anthropic roadshow in the same week. TSMC, SK hynix and Samsung rose as investors separated Nvidia’s own risk from AI demand. Microsoft winding down Oracle capacity on older chips is the weak spot in rented compute. A 165K payroll print, 3.1% wage growth and Daly’s support pushed December hike odds near 77% and the 2-year to 4.52%, though U6 shows hours being cut. China’s truce extension and exporters holding dollars put Nvidia’s China access on the Xi summit agenda. In Europe, the focus is Crédit Agricole’s Banco BPM proposal and UniCredit’s upgrade.

- Asia closed mixed with Nikkei225 outperforming +2.5%. EU indices +0.6-1.6%. US futures +0.2-0.7%. Gold +0.7%, DXY -0.5%; Commodity: Brent -0.9%, WTI -0.5%; Crypto: BTC -2.3%, ETH -6.1%.

Asia

- China Oct CPI Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e; PPI Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.4%e.

- China Oct Foreign Reserves: $3.405T v $3.408Te; Gold Reserves 78.3M troy oz v 77.5M m/m [24th straight month of resumed purchases].

- Philippines Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 3.1%e.

- Indonesia Oct Consumer Confidence: 119.9 v 118.1 prior.

- New Zealand PM Luxon’s centre right bloc on 67 to 68 of 131 seats, enough for a narrow majority, against 57 for the centre left.

- RBA Assistant Gov Hunter noted that AI might be increasing risks to financial stability.

Global conflict/tensions

- President Trump stated that was “highly unlikely” he would order the US back to war with Iran if talks continued to progress; Trump to meet with Qatar PM on Monday (**Reminder: Qatar Emir said to receive phone call from President Trump on Friday to discuss de-escalation efforts in region).

- US military said its air force fired at the stern of a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Saturday evening, disabling it as it tried to get through the blockade on Iran.

- China Foreign Ministry called for new regional security framework in Middle East and urged a political solution to Middle East conflicts in Iran.

Europe

- ECB’s Lagarde noted that inflation was likely to stay high in near future.

- Israeli President Herzog formally handed opposition leader Eisenkot the mandate to form a government after last week’s parliamentary election.

Americas

- US Sept Consumer Credit: $27.8B v $13.8Be.

- Democrats said to be expected to oppose much of Trump's proposed $1.5T defense budget.

Trade

- China Vice Premier He held a video call with US Tsy Sec Bessent and USTR Greer, raising concern over US trade restrictions on China, with both sides agreeing to continue consultations.

- China announced it will extend for a further two months the suspension of 24ppts of additional tariffs on certain US imports while retaining a 10% tariff rate (effective Nov 10th).

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.50% at 10,727.35, DAX +0.59% at 25,947.55, CAC-40 +0.17% at 8,152.60, IBEX-35 +0.85% at 19,534.90, FTSE MIB +1.33% at 50,718.50, SMI +0.24% at 14,832.60, S&P 500 Futures +0.26%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities open higher, with the FTSE MIB up 1.3%, the IBEX 35 up 0.9%, the DAX up 0.6%, the FTSE 100 up 0.5% and the CAC 40 up 0.2%, as Brent slips below $100 after Trump played down the prospect of fresh strikes on Iran (Shell and BP -1.5% each), even though Nvidia’s Frankfurt line fell about 6% on reports that its board has opened an independent investigation into Jensen Huang after he admitted to an affair with a woman US intelligence agencies reportedly assessed as a Beijing asset. Italian banks dominate the winners as Banco BPM jumps about 11% on Crédit Agricole’s proposal to fold its Italian arm into the group at a 20% premium plus a €1B special dividend, which would lift Crédit Agricole’s stake to about 45% and leaves it down 1.5%, while UniCredit gains 4.5% after a €3.3B Q3 profit against €2.8B consensus and a 2026 ambition raised to well above €11.5B, and Commerzbank adds 2.5% as UniCredit targets remaining approvals by late November and control by Q1 2027. Kainos drops 8.5% as a 390 bps squeeze in Digital Services gross margin and in-line H2 guidance overshadow 37% H1 revenue growth, Hochtief falls 5.5% after ACS denied considering a takeover bid, and Fresenius Medical Care loses 2% on a Barclays downgrade to Sell, while the upside is cushioned by upgrades, with SAP up 2% and Danske Bank up 2% on JPMorgan upgrades to Overweight, AutoStore up 6.5% on a DNB Carnegie upgrade to Buy, and Airbus up 1.5% on a buyback of up to €5B. The week’s calendar is dense, with US October CPI expected at +0.3% m/m, euro-zone Q3 GDP and the ECB’s updated forecasts set against October inflation at a three-year high of 4.0%, and ECB speakers including Lane and Lagarde feeding a market that already prices a December hike.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Kid [KID.NO] +3.0% (SEB raised its price target to NOK161 from NOK149 and ABG lifted its target to NOK170 from NOK157, both retaining Buy), Pandora [PNDORA.DK] +2.5% (RBC raised its price target to DKK900 from DKK875 while retaining Sector Perform).

Healthcare: ChemoMetec [CHEMM.DK] +4.5% (SEB raised its price target to DKK710 from DKK580, while Arctic lifted its target to DKK810 from DKK625), Argenx [ARGX.BE] +4.0% (agreed to acquire peptide-discovery specialist Unnatural Products for $550 million upfront and up to $1.15 billion including milestones), Fresenius Medical Care [FME.DE] -2.0% (Barclays downgraded to Sell from Neutral and cut its price target to €35 from €44.50).

Technology: SAP [SAP.DE] +2.0% (JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to €275 from €175), Pexip [PEXIP.NO] +1.0% (SEB upgraded to Buy from Hold with an NOK85 price target), Kainos [KNOS.UK] -8.5% (H1 revenue and adjusted pretax profit rose 37% and 30%, but Digital Services gross margin narrowed 390 basis points and H2 guidance was only in line).

Energy: Odfjell Drilling [ODL.NO] +2.0% (Arctic raised its price target to NOK118 from NOK110 and reiterated Buy), Shell [SHEL.UK] -1.5%, BP [BP.UK] -1.5% (oil weakened below $100 a barrel after Trump played down the prospect of new strikes on Iran).

Consumer staples: Haypp Group [HAYPP.SE] +5.0% (Deutsche Bank raised margin forecasts after the strong quarter and lifted its price target to SEK220 from SEK205, retaining Buy), Orkla [ORK.NO] +1.0% (SEB raised its price target to NOK102 from NOK94, while Nordea lifted its target to NOK100 from NOK99), Carlsberg [CARL-B.DK] -0.5% (DNB Carnegie downgraded to Hold from Buy despite raising its price target to DKK1,035 from DKK995).

Industrials /defence: AutoStore [AUTO.NO] +6.5% (DNB Carnegie upgraded to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to NOK24 from NOK17), Airbus [AIR.FR] +1.5% (launched a multi-year buyback of up to €5 billion, including an initial tranche of as much as €800 million), Siemens Energy [ENR.DE] +1.5% (rebounded after last week’s AI-infrastructure selloff as Bernstein reiterated Buy with a €210 price target), Hochtief [HOT.DE] -5.5% (majority shareholder ACS denied it had considered launching a takeover bid for the construction group), GEA Group [G1A.DE] -0.5% (Q3 orders beat consensus, but revenue, EBITDA and net profit missed forecasts and the raised full-year outlook was merely confirmed).

Financials: Banco BPM [BAMI.IT] +11.0% (Crédit Agricole proposed merging its Italian arm into Banco BPM at a 20% valuation premium plus a €1 billion special dividend), UniCredit [UCG.IT] +4.5% (Q3 profit of €3.3 billion beat €2.8 billion consensus and the bank raised its 2026 profit ambition to well above €11.5 billion), Commerzbank [CBK.DE] +2.5% (UniCredit said remaining takeover approvals are expected by late November, with control and new governance targeted by Q1 2027), Danske Bank [DANSKE.DK] +2.0% (JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to DKK424 from DKK340), Swedbank [SWED-A.SE] +1.5% (JPMorgan raised its price target to SEK401 from SEK324 while retaining Neutral), Handelsbanken [SHB-A.SE] +1.5% (JPMorgan upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and raised its price target to SEK159 from SEK129), Crédit Agricole [ACA.FR] -1.5% (its proposed Banco BPM combination would lift its ownership to about 45% and includes a €1 billion special dividend for Banco BPM shareholders), Hannover Re [HNR1.DE] -1.5% (Q3 profit beat consensus but the reinsurer only reiterated its full-year net-profit target of at least €2.7 billion).

Materials: Outokumpu [OUT1V.FI] -2.0% (Oddo cut its price target to €5.10 from €7.50 and Nordea reduced its target to €5 from €6).

Utilities: E.ON [EOAN.DE] -0.5% (Morgan Stanley downgraded to Neutral from Buy while retaining its €21 price target).

Speakers

- Eurogroup Chief Pierrakakis noted that it had a tight schedule on ECB positions; need to move fast; aim to have process completed by end-2026 (**Reminder Lagarde to step down as head of ECB on Feb 7th).

- EU’s Economic Commissioner Dombrovskis noted that the economy was facing uncertainty and downside risks.

- China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo noted that Nvidia CEO Huang spy allegations were unsubstantiated.

- Qatar PM stated that US and Iran won't be able to make a perfect peace deal, and should accept a good deal over a perfect one.

Currencies

- USD was softer across the board as the week began. Dealers attributed the greenback softness to some risk appetite as ongoing negotiations around the US-Iran conflict which raised prospects of an end to the war.

- EUR/USD at 1.1190 by mid-session with Eurogroup beginning discussion on who would succedd Lagarde at the ECB.

- USD/JPY at 158 area. BOJ rate increase expectations decline as Gov Ueda continued to avoid giving a Dec rate hike signal.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.26%, France 10-year Oat at 4.79% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.14%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.86%; 10-year JGB: 2.65%.

Economic data

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Net Reserves: $71.6B v $72.3B prior; Gross Reserves: $74.5B v $75.4B prior.

- (DE) Germany Sept Trade Balance: €15.6B v €19.4Be; Exports M/M: 2.0% v 0.5%e; Imports M/M: 4.2% v 0.5%e.

- (NO) Norway Oct PPI (including oil) M/M: 6.7% v 12.4% prior; Y/Y: 59.0% v 48.8% prior.

- (FI) Finland Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: -€1.2B v -€1.0B prior.

- (DK) Denmark Sept Current Account Balance (DKK): 39.1B v 34.3B prior.

- (TW) Taiwan Oct Trade Balance: $27.9B v $23.1Be; Exports Y/Y: 58.9% v 51.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 75.1% v 67.5%e.

- (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 452.9B v 460.3B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 429.2B v 436.9B prior.

- (CZ) Czech Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.0% v 5.0% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Oct International Reserves: $179.1B v $179.4B prior.

- (EU) Eurozone Nov Sentix Investor Confidence: 2.4 v 2.1e.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €5.0B in 6-month and 12-month BuBills.

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 1.3%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 3.8% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Trade Balance: No est v -€3.0B prior.

- 06:00 (EU) ECB’s Vujcic (Croatia).

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell combined ILS2.9B in 2030, 2031, 2034, 2037 and 2052 bonds (6 tranches).

- 06:00 (NO) Norway announcement on upcoming bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Oct Trade Balance: $1.8Be v $2.0B prior; Total Exports: No est v $10.6B prior; Total Imports: No est v $8.5B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $6.0B prior.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Oct International Reserves: No est v $53.5B prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Oct CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.5% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 3.8% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Vehicle Production: No est v 301.8K prior; Exports: No est v 277.4K prior.

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Oct Official Reserve Assets: No est v $731.8B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance.

- 08:40 (US) Fed’s Bowman.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €6.1-7.7B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.6%e v 0.6% prelim; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: No est v 1.8% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Fed’s Goolsbee.

- 11:00 (US) Oct NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations: 3.8%e v 3.9% prior.

- 11:00 (IT) ECB’s Goolsbee (Italy).

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 6-week bills.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10 Year Bonds.

- 12:15 (US) Fed’s Barkin.

- 12:25 (UK) BOE Gov Bailey.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes.

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -3.2% prior; Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v -4.4% prior.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 18:00 (CO) Colombia Oct CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.3% prior.

- 18:00 (CO) Colombia Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.1%e v 6.2% prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan BOJ Summary of Opinions.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Sept Current Account Balance: ¥3.300Te v ¥4.062T prior; Adjusted Current Account Balance: ¥2.770Te v ¥2.979T prior; Trade Balance (BoP Basis): -¥225.8Be v -¥687.7B prior.

- 18:30 (JP) Japan Sept Household Spending Y/Y: -3.1%e v -3.1% prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct Bank Lending Y/Y: No est v 5.3% prior; Bank Lending (ex-trusts) Y/Y: No est v 5.7% prior.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia Nov Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 80.4 prior.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 66.2 prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Oct BRC LFL Sales Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior.

- 19:15 (NZ) RBNZ Conway (Chief Economist).

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct NAB Business Confidence: No est v -13 prior; Conditions: No est v -1 prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Oct Construction PMI: No est v 50.4 prior.

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 30-year JGB Bonds.

- 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.7%e v 5.0% prior; Manufacturing Sales Value Y/Y: No est v 9.9% prior.