Our tradelog around today's ECB meeting

Gonçalo Moreira, CMT Independent Analyst

Tradelog

We are mantaining the short entry at 1.0692 from yesterday (88 pips in green). This trade served to inaugurate a new account we opened with our partner FxPro and our President Mr. Francesc Riverola did the honours to execute it [Updated 01/19 16:42 CET];

Pending positions for today are updated here as well as other open and closed commitments [Updated 01/19 16:08 CET];

Entry at 1.0614 was entered at a better price with our partner FxPro (cTrader Platform) 1.06137 and closed in profit at 1.0628 for 15 pips [Updated 01/19 14:53 CET];

Channel support is now at 1.0564 would capitalize on a Marc Chandler's idea (Further below on this page). We penciled in a limit buy order with an 12 pip profit [Updated 01/19 13:07 CET];

Almost all the banks expect no major changes or announcements from the ECB and no fresh initiatives while the focus will shift on the Draghi’s press conference and Q&A session (for more detail click here) [Updated 01/19 12:26 CET];

Legitimating the supply-demand distribution from our dedicated contributors (see above chart or click here for details) 1.0650 is likely is the likely draw today: DTCC highlights 3.2bln 1.0650 options expiry NY cut. O/n Options 16.0 or 71 pips break even. 1bln 1.0625-35 expiries today (Reuters) [Updated 01/19 12:01 CET];
In case market participants have to readjust their expectations of a hawkish Draghi, triggering further gains in the EUR/USD, these would meet a selling opportunity around and above 1.0744 which is todays R2 (see more Pivot Points) and was also ytd's R2. The proximity of round figure 1.0750 makes it a good place for a short scalper to get positioned [Updated 01/19 11:11 CET];
There are surely arguments in favor of a weaker EURUSD post ECB meeting: "...it is likely that President Draghi will maintain a cautious tone stressing that there has been little evidence of pick up in core inflation pressures yet." Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG [Updated 01/19 10:33 CET];
Our current exposure in the EUR/USD is almost 100% hedged ahead of the ECB event, but mid-term (2-3 months) we favor the dollar-bullish developments as outlined in the Sentiment Aggregator [Updated 01/19 10:22 CET];
"The European Central Bank announced an extension of its facility program last December, until December 2017, adding also that it would reduce the pace of bond buying starting April from €80 billion to €60 billion.
In general, market believes the ECB is at the beginning of the end of its massive bond-purchase program, even despite Draghi said last December, “ . . . as a matter of fact, it’s not even been on the table.” Investors, however, refuse to believe his words, moreover after the minutes showed dissention among policy makers.
With all of the above, the Central Bank will likely leave its monetary policy unchanged, while Draghi is expected to offer a hawkish, confident speech. Given that the market is happily unwinding its dollar's longs, the common currency will likely extend its weekly advance following the statement and press conference." - Valeria Bednarik [Updated 01/19 09:36 CET];
We entered short at 1.0692 with a market order and a buy limit at 1.0614 [Updated 01/18 18:36 CET];

FXStreet's Trading Positions:

DATE	PAIR	ORDER	ENTRY	STOP	PROFIT	STATUS
01/19/2017	EUR/USD	BUY LMT	1.0614	--	1.0629	closed
01/19/2017	EUR/USD	BUY LMT	1.0564	--	1.0576	pending
01/19/2017	EUR/USD	SELL LMT	1.0744	--	1.0494	pending
01/16/2017	EUR/USD	SELL MKT	1.0587	--	1.0487	open
01/16/2017	EUR/USD	SELL MKT	1.0582	--	--	open
01/12/2017	EUR/USD	SELL MKT	1.0641	--		closed
01/12/2017	EUR/USD	SELL MKT	1.0654	--	1.0644	closed
01/10/2017	EUR/USD	BUY MKT	1.0598	--	1.0603	closed
01/10/2017	EUR/USD	BUY MKT	1.0648	--	--	open
01/05/2017	EUR/USD	BUY STP	1.0580	--	1.0609	closed
01/05/2017	EUR/USD	BUY MKT	1.0523	--	1.0645	closed
01/05/2017	EUR/USD	SELL MKT	1.0500	--	--	open
01/04/2017	EUR/USD	SELL MKT	1.0446	--	--	open
12/13/2016	EUR/USD	SELL LMT	1.0929	--	--	pending
12/13/2016	EUR/USD	SELL LMT	1.1339	--	--	pending
12/08/2016	EUR/USD	SELL LMT	1.0827	--	--	open

For more details on trade statistics and current exposure, please click here.

Author

Gonçalo Moreira, CMT

Independent Analyst

As a trader in the foreign exchange market since 2005, Gonçalo Moreira honed his analytic and strategic skills through the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. 

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