One Day Up, Next Day Down

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 4 AM EST, here’s what we see:

US Dollar: Jun. USD is Down at 93.290.
Energies: Jun '18 Crude is Up at 71.63.
Financials: The June 30 year bond is Up 5 ticks and trading at 140.19.
Indices: The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is 17 ticks Higher and trading at 2723.00.
Gold: The June gold contract is trading Down at 1289.00. Gold is 4 ticks Lower than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is Down- and Crude is Up+ which is normal but the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Down- which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down-. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

At this hour Asia is trading Mixed with Half the exchanges trading Higher and the other half Lower. At this time all of Europe is trading Lower.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

  • FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 3 AM EST. This is major.

  • FOMC Member Brainard Speaks at 9:15 AM. This is major.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 8:30 AM EST. The ZB hit a High at around that time and the YM hit a Low. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 8:30 AM EST and the YM was moving Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a High at around 8:30 AM and the YM was trending Higher at the same time. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25.

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform

Pre-Market Global Review

Pre-Market Global Review

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as the markets didn't seem to have any sense of direction yesterday morning. The Dow dropped 55 points and the other indices lost ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday's economic news wasn't exactly shabby yet the markets lost ground. We seem to be in this pattern of one day up and the next day down. Don't fall into the pattern of thinking that this this will continue. As traders we need to ask why is this happening?  Each time negative news is reported the markets seem to advance and when positive news is reported, it seems to falter. Why? This is the same exact situation that occurred when tapering ended at the Federal Reserve. When positive news is reported, the perception is that the Fed will raise and when negative news is reported the perception is that the Fed won't. Some may think that this is far fetched but we say "let history decide".....

Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.

In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.