Once again

USD: Dec '25 is Up at 99.915.  

Energies: Dec '25 Crude is Down at 60.14.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 3 ticks and trading at 117.08.

Indices: The Dec '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 300 ticks Lower and trading at 6808.00.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Down at 4006.00.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia traded Lower. Currently all of Europe is trading Lower as well.

Possible challenges to traders                                                

• FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 6:35 AM EST. Major.
• RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Tentative Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8 AM EST with no economic news reported. The Dow climbed Higher at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 12 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is now Dec '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts Courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Dec 25 - 11/3/25

Dow - Dec 2025- 11/3/25

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow closed Lower by 226 points but the S&P and Nasdaq both closed Higher.  Today our bias is Neutral and Mixed as well.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Once again, we predicted a Mixed day for the markets and they didn't disappoint.  The Dow traded Lower by 226 points, but the other indices closed Higher.  Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?