Market movers today

  • We have another quiet day today in terms of data releases. The single most important event is President-elect Donald Trump's press conference in New York City, which is expected to be held at 17:00 CET (we have not been able to confirm this). Hopefully, we will get more details on what to expect from the new Trump administration, although we do not know exactly what he is going to talk about. We will listen carefully for any comments on fiscal policy, trade policy, the Homeland Investment Act 2 and border adjustment taxes.

  • The main event in the European markets today, given very little economic data, will be the Italian constitutional court's ruling on the labour market reforms implemented by the old PM Matteo Renzi – see also the Fixed Income section on the next page. 

  • In terms of data releases, focus is on the UK, as industrial production and construction output data for November as well as the NIESR GDP estimate for Q4 are due out. UK PMIs have risen in recent months in line with global PMIs, suggesting that the UK economy continues to be resilient to Brexit uncertainties. It is still our view that growth will slow this year due to Brexit uncertainties and higher inflation.

 

Selected market news

In the US yesterday, the NFIB small business optimism index rose 7.4 index points (the most since 1980) to 105.8, which is the highest level in 12 years. Since October before the election, the optimism index has risen close to 11 index points, so the increase is quite significant. Looking at the subcomponents, small businesses expect higher sales, more investments and higher employment. The reason behind the large increase is the Trump victory, as many small businesses expect Trump to loosen regulation and lower taxes significantly – it did not take long before Trump noted the surge on Twitter. The higher optimism among small businesses comes on the back of a jump in consumer confidence, which is at the highest level since August 2001, so both consumers and companies are excited by the upcoming Trump presidency. We still do not know much about how President-elect Donald Trump will act as President, but we see a risk that corporates and consumers may be disappointed, as his actual policy is likely to be more modest than suggested during the election campaign.

Intel chiefs have presented President-elect Trump with claims of Russian efforts to compromise him. According to sources, the Russians should be in possession of compromising personal and financial information about Trump, see also the CNN story. Donald Trump has called it ‘fake news' on Twitter.

Oil prices continue to fall yesterday and went below USD54/bl. Along with the lower-thanexpected Norwegian inflation figures, the decline in the oil price pushed EUR/NOK up to 9.08 – the highest level since the beginning of the year. In our view, Norges Bank will not be too concerned with the decline in inflation and thus it does not change our view that EUR/NOK should head back below the 9.00 level in the short term as NOK remains supported by valuation, economic growth and real rates.

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD regains traction, recovers above 1.0700

EUR/USD regains traction, recovers above 1.0700

EUR/USD regained its traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0700 in the American session. The US Dollar struggles to preserve its strength after the data from the US showed that the economy grew at a softer pace than expected in Q1.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD returns to 1.2500 area in volatile session

GBP/USD returns to 1.2500 area in volatile session

GBP/USD reversed its direction and recovered to 1.2500 after falling to the 1.2450 area earlier in the day. Although markets remain risk-averse, the US Dollar struggles to find demand following the disappointing GDP data.

GBP/USD News

Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data

Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data

Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.

Gold News

XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger

XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger

Ripple extends decline to $0.52 on Thursday, wipes out weekly gains. Crypto expert asks Ripple CTO how the stablecoin will benefit the XRP Ledger and native token XRP. 

Read more

After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI

After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI

After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI, a reliable indicator of the national number and then the BoJ policy announcement. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy in Japan was a rise to 2.90% in March from 2.50%.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures