NZD/USD stuck in a rectangle pattern [Video]

NZDUSD gets rejected after claiming 50-day SMA.
But the decline meets strong support at 200-day SMA.
Oscillators remain in their negative territories.

Stefanos Oikonomidis XM

NZDUSD had been in a downtrend since its rejection at 0.6373, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.6536-0.5772 region. Despite the pair’s attempt for recovery and its temporary break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), it reversed back within its short-term sideways pattern.

Given that both the RSI and MACD are tilted to the downside, the price might drop below the 200-day SMA and challenge the 38.2% Fibo of 0.6064. Sliding beneath that floor, the pair could descend towards the 2024 bottom of 0.6037. A violation of that region could set the stage for the 23.6% Fibo of 0.5952.

On the flipside, should the pair rotate back higher, immediate resistance could be found at the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6154, which overlaps with the 50-day SMA. Conquering this barricade, the bulls may attack the recent rejection region of 0.6217. Further advances could then cease around the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6244.

Overall, despite the break above the 50-day SMA, NZDUSD reversed back within its rangebound structure as the 200-day SMA provided solid support. Hence, the consolidation phase is likely to resume and hold for as long as the SMAs hold their ground.

Author

Stefanos Oikonomidis

Stefanos joined XM as a Junior Investment Analyst in September 2021. He conducts daily market research on the currency, commodity and equity markets, from a fundamental and a technical perspective.

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