Nvidia GTC Berlin

EU mid-market update: Nvidia GTC Berlin; France’s 10-year spread widens to 160bps as Carrefour cuts guidance on the riots; NEXTDC loses 44% after A$140M of contracted revenue slips with a grid connection, as SpaceX names power as its binding constraint; UK CPI beats at 3.5%; Micron reached an agreement with its Taichung union.

Notes/observations

- French unrest has reached corporate guidance, UK inflation confirmed the BoE’s November hike without quickening the cycle, and AI’s constraint is shifting from funding to the grid. OAT-Bund holds 152bp after Tuesday’s 5bp widening, gilt tens barely move at 5.41%, just under their 19-year high, NEXTDC fell 44% on a Melbourne power delay and Kospi rose 3.3% to 5,735 on chip names.

- The AI trade split overnight: SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6B against $12.6B expected and Super Micro pre-announced $18.5-19.5B against $14.8B, while Netflix fell 5% and Intuitive Surgical 10% after hours. Korea’s first-20-day October exports rose 105.4% on the year, with chips up 222.5% against 170.9% for the first ten days. That triggered an upside sidecar on the Kospi, with SK Hynix up about 6% and Samsung up 4%, and the index finished around 2.8% higher. Nasdaq futures were up 0.7% after a cash session in which small caps led, the Russell 2000 was up 1.8% intraday, and NYSE advancers outnumbered decliners 2.1 to 1 into the final hour. Tuesday’s macro data were weak: September housing starts were 1.221M against 1.305M expected, pending home sales fell 7.3% on the month and 12.6% on the year, and the 10-year Treasury eased to 5.08-5.13%. Europe opens with chip and data-centre equipment names indicated 2-3.5% higher, the reverse of Tuesday’s 2-6% losses, while the domestic French names that trade on politics remain under pressure.

- France’s 10-year spread over Bunds widened from 146bps at Tuesday’s open to about 153bps intraday and is near 160bps this morning, back near the early-October peak, with the OAT tests 5.00% against Bunds at 3.41%. The first reading of the revenue budget is now suspended until October 27, after Moody’s review on Friday. The finance committee had already rejected the government’s revenue proposals, and more than 2,000 amendments remain. Finance Minister Lescure said on RTL that the government has constitutional levers to pass a budget without a parliamentary vote, which points to Article 49.3 and a likely no-confidence motion. An IFOP poll put Le Pen at 34-38% in the first round of next spring’s presidential election and Mélenchon at 15-20%. Curfews are now renewable nightly in Paris and other cities, and the unions have called a cross-sector strike for November 5. Italy’s 10-year spread is about 114bps, so France pays roughly 38bps more than Italy. The government has no majority, and Moody’s on Friday will judge institutional capacity, which is the one variable the past week has weakened.

- Carrefour cut its 2026 guidance solely because of the French unrest and estimates €80-200M of lost recurring operating income against its previous target. It now sees operating-margin expansion of 0-15bps against at least 25bps previously, EPS stable to slightly higher against high-single-digit growth, and a slight decline in free cash flow. About 50 stores were hit on the first day, merchandise losses and repairs exceeded €10M within three days, and most losses will not be insured. Management said it would have reaffirmed guidance until Friday. December normally generates more than a third of Carrefour’s annual recurring operating income in France, and holiday non-food stock is already in stores and distribution centres, so the sell-through risk sits in the most important month. Carrefour cut capex by €100M to €1.6B by deferring French store works, and Morgan Stanley and Kepler downgraded the stock this morning. Michelin is indicated 6% lower after tyre volumes fell 0.8%, and Eurofins 13.5% lower after cutting its organic growth target. EssilorLuxottica reported only minor store closures in France and Italy and is indicated 7% higher. Carrefour is the first French company to quantify the unrest, and its €80-200M range suggests management cannot yet see when it will end.

- Huang opened GTC Berlin by saying Nvidia has invested nearly $10B in Europe over the past year and announced stakes in 14 startups during last week’s tour through France, the UK, Sweden and Germany, but had disclosed no deal sizes in the opening half hour. The $10B is roughly one month of Nvidia’s $127B in trailing free cash flow, and none of Monday’s German announcements carried a price either. The first new claim for markets came from Huang himself: every telco’s roughly 100,000 sites, which he put at about 100GW of base stations and data centres, will become a distributed AI network. That gives Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Nokia and Ericsson a demand story beyond radio upgrades, a day before Nokia reports. Huang framed AI as a five-layer manufacturing stack of energy, chips, AI factories, models and applications, and named Schneider, Siemens and Siemens Energy as European winners at the bottom of that stack. He also cited Nebius among the AI factory operators, with its CEO Volozh due on stage later. The keynote has not yet answered the question the tape is asking, which is who finances the next wave of capacity. CoreWeave’s 2032 notes still yield 14.9% with CDS near 1,082bps, and Nebius lost more than 25% last week despite Nvidia’s $2B stake in March. Still to come: any Rubin pricing, any non-TSMC packaging or foundry partner for Feynman, and whether consortia pre-announce bids before the EU AI Gigafactories call closes on November 12.

- UK September CPI rose 3.5% against 3.4% expected and 3.1% in August, the 24th month above target, with services at 3.7% against 3.6% and core in line at 2.8%. Input PPI rose 1.5% on the month and 8.3% on the year against 7.6% expected, output PPI 4.6% against 4.4%, and August input was revised up. Public sector net borrowing was £24.5B against £24.0B expected, about £7B more than in August, a week before the October 28 Budget. Hawkish dissenter Greene said on Tuesday that second-round inflation risks are greater than thought, that forward-looking data point to pay growth near 3.5% against the roughly 3% consistent with target, and that labour-market slack may have peaked. That followed Tuesday’s jobs report, which showed unemployment unexpectedly falling to 4.7%. The 2036 gilt auction cleared at 5.418% with a 0.2bps tail and 3.61 times cover, and the 10-year closed near 5.41%. Healey has reportedly ruled out raising capital gains tax, while bank taxes remain in play. Input prices at 8.3% are still feeding into output prices and then CPI, which keeps the BoE on course for a November 5 hike even as the borrowing figures limit Healey’s room.

- NEXTDC shares in Australia fell 44% and its 2030 bonds dropped 5 points to 92 after it removed about A$140M each of net revenue and EBITDA from fiscal 2027 guidance because Melbourne’s distributor suspended the grid works for its M3 campus. Jemena halted the 66kV line upgrade in September over community opposition and safety concerns, says work will not resume before February 2027, and NEXTDC now expects the power increase only in fiscal 2028. Further increases depend on transformer projects at Brooklyn Terminal Station, which are also running late, and Victoria’s planning decision on the M3 expansion has slipped into 2027 because of the state election. The contracts include service-level credits and, in some circumstances, termination rights for the customer. NEXTDC has paused uncontracted projects and cut capex to A$4.5-5.0B. This is the second grid failure in four days, after Microsoft walked away from Nscale’s Loughton site when power slipped into the 2030s. Trump wrote overnight that new large data centres are mandated to make their own electricity and sell any surplus to the grid. SpaceX said power and cooling, not chips, constrain its compute build, with turbine blades arriving 12-18 months behind other components, and Keycorp cited diesel generator lead times of 24-36 months. For data-centre operators, a signed lease does not guarantee billing.

- SpaceX’s third-quarter AI revenue was $7.56B against $6.5B expected, up from $813M a year earlier, adjusted EBITDA was $8.81B against $6.4B, and it guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33-37B against $23.4B expected. Capex was $19.6B and is guided to $35-40B in the fourth quarter, with compute rising to about 2.2GW by end-October and 2.5-3GW by year end. Musk said he is “highly confident” of adding 10GW in 2027. He said demand exceeds supply several times over and that short-term contracts are renewing above the prior $30-50 per watt range. Management prefers spot-like pricing to long-term contracts, and Musk projected $500B to $1 trillion of annualised revenue by the end of 2027. Anthropic’s previously reported $1.25B-a-month rental, with 90-day exit rights after the initial term, is part of this revenue base. Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees on a merger, which Musk said needs approval from half of all Tesla shares. Shares rose about 8% after hours, and Musk said ASML and other suppliers are speeding equipment deliveries for SpaceX’s Terafab. The guidance assumes compute keeps being sold at spot prices that rise on renewal, which works only while capacity stays scarce.

- A draft Anthropic S-1 reported by the WSJ shows first-half revenue of $16.3B against $1.1B a year earlier and a net loss of $80.7B, of which about $72B were reported as accounting charges, with roughly $9B spent on computing power. The draft reportedly describes compute commitments of up to $750B, mostly noncancelable, including $111B with Google Cloud, $110B with AWS and up to $86B for renting Nvidia chips. It also says a “significant portion” of revenue will come from a limited number of customers for the foreseeable future, and it lists opposition to data centres as a business risk. The figures are from a draft and have not been published by the company, and the noncash charges mean the net loss is not a cash measure. Commitments of this size sit on the books of the hyperscalers, Nvidia and neoclouds such as Nscale, where Anthropic is reportedly negotiating a further $45B deal. The noncancelable terms move risk onto the buyer of compute, while termination rights in SpaceX’s and Nscale’s contracts move it back onto the suppliers.

- Memory is getting tighter on the supply side, not just the demand side. Japanese storage maker Buffalo’s parent Melco will raise USB memory prices by up to 266% on November 2. GM now counts DRAM within about $2B of commodity inflation this year, and Currys said memory costs are lifting PC and phone prices. Micron reached an agreement with its Taichung union and withdrew from Thursday’s mediation, which lowers the risk at its largest Taiwan site. The Taoyuan union’s one-day strike on Thursday has not been called off. Samsung plans to upgrade its Xi’an plant, about 40% of its NAND output, to 286 layers, from 5,000 wafers a month in December 2026 to 40,000 by December 2027. The upgrade depends on US equipment licences that Washington has said it does not intend to grant for capacity increases. YMTC held 38.5% of China’s NAND market in the second quarter against Samsung’s 33.5%. Without the licences, Chinese supply of high-layer NAND grows through YMTC rather than through Korean fabs.

- Fuel costs are now in guidance across sectors. United guided fourth-quarter EPS to $0.50-1.50 against $1.75 expected, assuming jet fuel at $4.80 a gallon, and Alaska Air cut its full-year loss guidance to $5.00-5.50 a share after $1.8B of fuel above plan. Werner pre-announced weak results citing fuel, and Genuine Parts said diesel above $6 compares with the $4.50 assumed in its July outlook. In Italy, truckers’ blockades have stopped Rummo’s pasta factory and emptied shelves in the south, and Meloni is sending 500 more soldiers to Milan. Phillips 66 locked out Teamsters at its 275,000 b/d Bayway refinery, which supplies the East Coast. Korea plans to cut mandatory domestic fuel supply so its refiners can export more. Brent is near $109 after reports that a Pakistan-brokered US-Iran proposal had preliminary acceptance were denied, and the IRGC claimed another supertanker hit a mine south of Hormuz. The IEA’s Birol said more emergency releases are possible. Product costs are rising faster than crude, and Korea’s export move is one of the few supply responses that adds diesel within weeks.

- US housing is responding to 7.5% mortgage rates faster than the Fed. Equifax guided 2027 US mortgage transactions down by a high single digit. AGNC said daily mortgage originations have fallen to about $1.5B from $3-3.5B two months ago and that agency MBS supply should be materially lower into 2027. NAR’s Yun said rates may be peaking. Banks reported the same pressure: higher deposit competition (Commerce, Synovus, Ally), construction projects being renegotiated (Atlantic Union, United Community), and every transactional real-estate deal “getting retraded” (Keycorp). ADP’s four-week employment estimate slowed to 18,500, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow cut third-quarter growth to 3.5%. Treasury Secretary Bessent said auctions have been strong, foreign money is flowing into Treasuries because of problems elsewhere, and he sees no spillover from France. Today’s $13B 20-year reopening tests that claim, a day after Japan’s 20-year auction drew record cover of 5.84 times.

- Asia-Pacific central banks turned hawkish overnight. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino told parliament that underlying inflation is very close to 2%, that a delay in adjusting policy could hurt the economy, and that medium-term inflation expectations keep rising. Kyodo reported the BOJ will judge at its October 29-30 meeting whether the 2% target has been reached. The RBA’s Hauser said third-quarter CPI will exceed August forecasts and that capacity pressures are higher than thought, and Goldman now expects a November hike to 4.85%. Indonesia’s central bank surprised the roughly half of forecasters expecting a hike by holding at 5.75%. It instead raised the deposit facility rate 25bps to 5.00%, cut reserve requirements by 200bps in two steps, and widened its current-account deficit forecast to 1.6-2.4% of GDP. The Philippine peso hit a record low of 63.167 per dollar. Indonesia chose to inject liquidity rather than defend the rupiah through rates, a week after MSCI proposed removing it from emerging markets, while the Jakarta index rose 0.6%.

- Europe’s industrials and defence are being sold on in-line results, while the US names keep raising. ABB fell 6.5% on Tuesday despite reporting no data-centre slowdown and a $32B backlog, 40% of which converts in 2027. Schneider fell 3.5% after a €6B placement to fund its €20.1B purchase of PTC. Akzo Nobel’s management called the demand recovery “much-delayed” and will keep pricing to offset inflation. Adidas raised its operating profit guidance by €200M, helped by about €200M of US tariff refunds, and Iberdrola raised its 2026 net profit growth target to 10%. In the US, RTX’s backlog reached a record $340B with about $70B of binding munitions contracts. GE raised guidance and Northrop’s backlog hit a record $110B, and both cited supply chains as the constraint on output. European groups are being priced on how they fund growth, as Schneider’s placement shows, while their US peers are priced on backlog.

- Cross-asset: EUR/USD 1.1225-1.1240, USD/JPY 158.0-158.4 and AUD/USD near 0.70 after Hauser, with gold at $4,129, Bitcoin at $82,880 and WTI at $99. US 10-year 5.13%, Bund 3.41%, BTP 4.55% and JGB 2.88%. Witkoff is in St. Petersburg to present Putin with a peace proposal, and Politico reported that Washington will offer an in-person Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. The WSJ reported that Musk ordered the Starlink slowdown in Ukraine, which Rubio said Trump had nothing to do with. Hudbay and Mitsubishi approved the Copper World mine in Arizona. Ahead today: Meta, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research and SAP after the close, the US 20-year auction, and Bailey and Lagarde. Thursday brings Hermès, Nestlé, Nokia, Roche, UniCredit, BE Semiconductor and the Micron Taoyuan strike date. Friday brings Moody’s on France and the flash PMIs, followed by Brazil’s runoff on October 25, the French budget on October 27, the FOMC on October 27-28, the UK Budget on October 28 and the ECB and BOJ on October 29-30.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI outperforming +3.3%. EU indices -0.1% to +0.2%. US futures +0.2%. Gold -0.1%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent +1.3%, WTI +1.3%; Crypto: BTC +2.4%, ETH +3.2%.

Asia

- Japan Sept Trade Balance: -¥536.6B v -¥210.4Be; Exports Y/Y: 16.7% v 21.3%e; Imports Y/Y: 18.9% v 20.4%e.

- South Korea Sept PPI Y/Y: 7.7% v 7.9% prior- South Korea Oct Imports 20 Days Y/Y: 42.8% v 26.7% prior; Exports 20 Days Y/Y: 105.4% v 78.3% prior.

- RBA’s Hauser noted that inflation outlook looked worse than forecasted in August (**Note: Goldman analyst now expects 25bps hike 4.85% in Nov).

- BOJ Deputy Gov Himino noted that underlying inflation was quite close to BoJ's 2% target. Delay in adjusting policy could materialize inflation risks.

- Japan PM Takaichi stated that many people still did not feel the fruits of price measures. Doing everything we can on price measures.

- Japan Fin Min Katayama reiterated government communicating closely with BoJ, saw no big view between the two on inflation outlook, policy.

- Japan govt said to be considering introducing electricity/gas subsidies in winter to cushion households from rising heating costs.

Global conflict/tensions

- Israel PM Netanyahu is pushing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran.

- Russia Pres Putin said to have ordered an intensified campaign of sabotage and covert action against NATO countries.

- US Envoy Witkoff to arrive in St. Petersburg for talks with Pres Putin.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -4.9M v -11.1M prior.

- UK Govt approved North Sea drilling at Jackdaw gas field.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE -0.04% at 10,728.90, DAX +0.19% at 25,353.00, CAC-40 +0.41% at 7,870.44, IBEX-35 +0.25% at 19,140.56, FTSE MIB +0.25% at 49,196.50, SMI +0.06% at 14,487.00, S&P 500 Futures +0.04%].

Market focal points/key themes: European shares stabilized on Wednesday after two volatile sessions, the STOXX 600 ending essentially flat as robust individual earnings provided selective support even while French political turmoil—marked by nighttime curfews in Paris and Nice—and elevated OAT yields continued to constrain broader risk appetite. The most decisive individual moves were VusionGroup’s 15% surge after Q3 adjusted sales rose 25% with recurring revenue jumping 77–82% and guidance confirmed, Randstad’s 11.5% advance on 3.9% organic growth and double-digit underlying profit, EssilorLuxottica’s 10.5% jump on a consensus-beating revenue print driven by Asia-Pacific and wearables, and DSV’s 7.5% gain after a revenue beat plus a DKK1.5bn buyback, set against Carrefour’s 10.5% collapse after it cut margin, EPS and free-cash-flow guidance amid French unrest and a Morgan Stanley downgrade, Michelin’s 4.5% decline on near-flat organic revenue and falling tyre volumes, and Elisa’s 4.5% drop on a comparable-EBITDA miss and rising mobile churn. Technology names that had been battered last week—BE Semiconductor, ASM International, ASML and STMicroelectronics—posted modest gains of more than 1% as traders positioned cautiously ahead of Meta and Tesla results that will clarify the durability of AI capital-expenditure plans. With more than half of STOXX 600 market capitalization due to report over the next two weeks and consensus still projecting 20.7% year-on-year earnings growth, the immediate path for continental equities hinges on whether corporate delivery can offset the fiscal and political risk premium now embedded in French assets.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: EssilorLuxottica [EL.FR] +10.5% (Q3 revenue and constant-currency growth beat consensus, driven by Asia-Pacific, direct-to-consumer sales and wearables), Michelin [ML.FR] -4.5% (nine-month organic revenue grew only 0.1% and tyre volumes fell 0.8%, highlighting continued original-equipment weakness despite maintained guidance), Forvia [FRVIA.FR] -1.5% (auto-supplier read-through from General Motors' tariff-cost warning and cautious guidance commentary), Kingfisher [KGF.UK] -3.0%, Barratt Redrow [BTRW.UK] -2.0% (hotter UK inflation and firmer gilt yields pressured rate-sensitive housing and home-improvement stocks).

Healthcare: Getinge [GETI-B.SE] +2.0% (Q3 adjusted EBITA beat expectations as pricing and product mix lifted profitability, alongside strong cash generation).

Technology: VusionGroup [VU.FR] +15.0% (Q3 adjusted sales rose 25%, recurring value-added-services revenue jumped 77% and annual recurring revenue increased 82%; FY guidance confirmed), Soitec [SOI.FR] +3.0%, STMicroelectronics [STMPA.FR] +1.5% (semiconductor rebound as stronger US earnings and improved global risk appetite supported European technology shares), Legrand [LR.FR] +2.0% (Goldman Sachs upgraded the electrical-equipment group to Buy from Neutral).

Telecom: Elisa [ELISA.FI] -4.5% (Q3 comparable EBITDA missed consensus as telecom-service revenue declined and mobile churn increased).

Energy: Maurel et Prom [MAU.FR] +2.0% (tracked firmer crude prices, reflecting the producer's direct oil-price exposure), Vår Energi [VAR.NO] +0.5% (reported $1.5bn of post-tax operating cash flow, cut leverage to 0.3 times and increased Q3 and Q4 shareholder distributions to $400m each), Ithaca Energy [ITH.UK] +4.0%, BP [BP.UK] +2.0% (oil producers tracked Brent higher above $110 a barrel), Shell [SHEL.UK] +1.0% (the UK approved development of the company's Jackdaw North Sea gas field, alongside firmer oil prices).

Consumer staples: Carrefour [CA.FR] -10.5% (cut FY margin-growth, EPS and free-cash-flow guidance after French unrest disrupted stores and consumption; Morgan Stanley also downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight), Edenred [EDEN.FR] -3.0% (Q3 like-for-like revenue remained negative at -1.2% despite a headline revenue beat, while FY guidance was only reiterated), Pluxee [PLX.FR] -1.5% (meal-benefits peer read-through from Edenred's continued negative like-for-like revenue trend).

Industrials /defence: Randstad [RAND.NL] +11.5% (Q3 revenue exceeded expectations as organic growth reached 3.9% and underlying profit rose by double digits), DSV [DSV.DK] +7.5% (Q3 revenue beat consensus by 6%, adjusted operating profit topped forecasts and a DKK1.5bn buyback was launched), Klépierre [LI.FR] +2.5% (raised FY EBITDA guidance to at least €1.165bn and net current cash flow guidance to €2.83 per share), Bureau Veritas [BVI.FR] +2.0% (Q3 revenue of €1.57bn topped the €1.55bn consensus estimate and FY guidance was confirmed).

Financials: 3i Group [III.UK] -4.0% (Carrefour's warning and continuing French disruption intensified concerns about Action, 3i's core portfolio holding with substantial French exposure), Svenska Handelsbanken [SHBA.SE] -3.5% (Q3 operating profit narrowly missed expectations and the CET1 ratio declined to 17.0%).

Speakers

- France Fin Min Lescure reiterated govt view that had the instruments to pass a budget. Constitutional levers allowed govt to pass budget without Parliamentary vote.

- Indonesia Central Bank Policy Statement noted its decision to keep policy steady is consistent with strategy to stabilize the IDR currency (Rupiah) amid external pressure. To optimize monetary instruments to strengthen external resilience. To continue to monitor developments in outflows and focus on targeted measures to attract inflows.

- Russia Dep PM Novak noted that Russia might fully restore diesel exports by year-end; Russia and China might agree on POS-2 deal by year-end.

- Russia Pres Putin stated that Russia was ready to help US on a Iran resolution. Looking to restore economic ties with US.

- US Envoy Witkoff noted that recent talks in Olso were productive; hoped Putin would consider US-Ukraine-Russia talks.

- Iraq said to have closed AL-Sheeb border crossing with Iran for security reasons.

Currencies

- US Dollar: recovering as Treasury yields and oil prices rise.

- GBP/USD briefly rose after higher-than-expected U.K. inflation. Data showed UK inflation rose more than expected last month, potentially strengthening the case for a Bank of England rate increase in November.

- EUR/USD stayed around the 1.1220 area. Focus remained on EU bond spreads. French protests, fiscal strains continued to widen the French/German 10-year spread towards the 160 neighborhood. Euro facing head winds as a result.

- AUD/USD was firmer on hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia remarks. Goldman Sachs revised its call forward on the next RBA rate hike to the Nov meeting.

- Bond Yields: The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.41%, France 10-year Oat at 4.98% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.40%; 10-year Treasury yield: 5.12%; 10-year JGB: 2.87%.

Economic data

- (UK) Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e; CPI Services Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6%e; CPIH Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.5%e.

- (UK) Sept RPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9%e; RPI-X (ex-mortgage interest payments) Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.3% prior; Retail Price Index:422.1 v 422.0e.

- (UK) Sept PPI Input M/M: 1.5% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 8.3% v 7.6%e.

- (UK) Sept PPI Output M/M: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.4%e.

- (UK) Sept Public Finances (PSNCR): £16.9B v £9.9 prior; Public Sector Net Borrowing: £24.5B v £24.0Be; PSNB (ex-banking groups): £24.5B v £17.3B prior; Central Government NCR: £16.9B v £10.1B prior.

- (FR) France Aug Retail Sales (ex-auto) M/M: 0.3% v 0.4% prior.

- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) left BI Rate unchanged at 5.75% (not expected) for its 4th straight pause under the current tightening policy.

- (CH) Swiss Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.6% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Oct Real Sector (Manufacturing) Confidence (seasonally adj): 101.1 v 102.5 prior; Real Sector Confidence (unadj): 99.8 v 102.0 prior; Capacity Utilization: 74.5% v 74.2% prior.

- (PL) Poland Oct Consumer Confidence: -14.0 v -11.0e.

- (ZA) South Africa Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.7%e.

- (ZA) South Africa Sept CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.1%e.

- (UK) Aug ONS House Price Index Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.2% prior.

- 05:00 (EU) Euro Zone 2025 Final Govt Debt/GDP Ratio: % v 87.8% prelim.

- 05:00 (BE) Belgium Oct Consumer Confidence: # v -10.0 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR0B (nil) vs. INR230B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills; rejected all bids.

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK in 2035 and 2052 DGB Bonds.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK5.0B vs. SEK5.0B indicated in 2032 and 2037 bonds.

- (NO) Norway sold total NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 2028 and 2036 Bonds.

Looking ahead

- (AR) Argentina Sept UTDT Leading Indicator: No est v -0.3% prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays.

- 06:00 (EU) European Union to sell combined €6.0B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell combined CZK7.0B in 2031, 2034 and 2043 Bonds.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 16th: No est v -2.7% prior.

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Retail Sales M/M: -0.8%e v +2.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.4% prior.

- 07:30 (IN) India Sept Core Industries Output Y/Y: No est v 4.8% prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Retail Sales M/M: +0.3%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.8% prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Medium-Term Budget.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 3.25%.

- 09:00 (UK) BOE Gov Bailey.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Aug Trade Balance: -$2.6Be v -$2.8B prior; Total Imports: $7.5Be v $8.0B prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept PPI M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.5% prior.

- 12:00 (EU) ECB chief Lagarde.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 20-Year Bond Reopening.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +1.1%e v -2.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.2%e v -1.4% prior.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Wages M/M: No est v 2.8% prior.

- 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q3 CPI Q/Q: 0.8%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 4.1% prior; CPI Tradeable Q/Q: 0.2%e v 2.7% prior; CPI Non-Tradeable Q/Q: 1.2%e v 0.6% prior.

- 18:00 (HU) Hungary Oct Business Confidence: No est v -8.3 prior; Consumer Confidence: No est v -3.8 prior; Economic Sentiment: No est v -7.1 prior.

- 21:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Repo Rate unchanged at 3.00%.

- 21:00 (CN) China Sept Swift Global Payments (CNY): No est v 3.3% prior.

- 22:00 (NZ) New Zealand to sell combined NZ$450M in 2031 and 2036 bonds.

- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 2-year bonds.