Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Eagerly waiting for an upbeat report

The US will publish this Friday its latest update on employment data. Expectations are that the country has added 850K new jobs in September, weaker than the previous month’s total of 1.37M. However, analysts are also expecting the unemployment rate to have ticked down to 8.2% from 8.4% in the previous month.

Politics and the pandemic get in the way

The Nonfarm Payroll report has a political component this time, as it will be the last before the US presidential election. Trump has been backed by solid macroeconomic numbers throughout the first three years of his mandate, but things changed this 2020 with the pandemic. The country lost over 20 million job’s positions between March and April when lockdowns were imposed globally to contain the outbreak.

The US rushed into reopening the economy, which resulted in quite a substandard recovery, at the expense of 7.4 million coronavirus contagions and over 210K deaths. Elections will be the result of the people’s judgment, on whether such cost worth it.

Positive hints suggesting an upbeat outcome

According to the latest ADP survey, the private sector added a significant amount of new jobs in September, 749K vs the 650K expected. The report indicated that the manufacturing sector was the one growing the most. Worth noting that the ADP report has trailed the Nonfarm Payroll report since the pandemic started, which somehow suggest a stronger-than-anticipated outcome for the monthly report.

Consumer confidence has also surged in September, according to CB and the University of Michigan, both reaching their highest since the pandemic started. Additionally, the ISM indexes showed that the employment sub-component has continued to improve.

The number of layoffs has increased in September to 118.804K from 115.762K in August, while JOLTS Job Openings showed that the number of hires increased to 6.61M in July.

On a negative note, weekly jobless claims are stubbornly stable above 850K per week, while the previous monthly report missed expectations and came in worse than the July reading.

US jobs report pre-release checklist – Oct 2nd, 2020

Ahead of the release, the market is more interested in whether the US Congress would or would not agree on a stimulus package than on macroeconomic data.  The dollar is moving on sentiment. In this scenario, an upbeat report could play against the greenback, as stocks will likely advance. A disappointing number, on the other hand, could have the opposite effect, sending stocks lower and investors into the safe-haven dollar.

The Pound is tied to Brexit headlines, which means GBP/USD could be the less interesting pair to trade within the NFP release. Commodity-linked currencies, on the other hand, have been quite responsive to risk-sentiment, and hence, maybe the preferred ones to play.

As for the EUR, the only reason for the pair to run is the dollar’s weakness. The shared currency is among the weakest high-yielding ones, which means a more interesting movement may take place should the report ends up boosting the dollar’s demand.