No suspicion CPI

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

S&P 500 held for a few hours above Tue highs, didn‘t roll over in a straight line following the opening bell. For 45min buyers held the sellers, and then the floor gave, and so did tech relative outperformance of the prior day. No data this time, and MU earnings expectations were very negative to start with – the company did beat in line with my expectations, yet it didn‘t spark a relief rally to speak of.

CPI is likely to come in low if oil, oil products and shelter are any clues (clearly did, 2.6% is too comfortably low, too printable) – and that would spark (that‘s what I told clients even before MU earnings) a relief rally in S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which would however manage to take ES to the troubled 6,815 (Mar contract) area, where the next direction will be picked (6,850 will be tough to get to in one go, no matter the relatively better Nasdaq internals even accounting for yesterday).

Tuesday‘s buying spree into the close was erased with ease – it‘s certainly telling how MU earnings were faded, and even GOOGL or ASML struggling to hold the line yesterday (or HOOD and TSLA wild swings).

The volatility metrics are at odds with each other, and at least the bond market isn‘t afraid of CPI (it shouldn‘t be afraid).

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.