No suspicion CPI
S&P 500 held for a few hours above Tue highs, didn‘t roll over in a straight line following the opening bell. For 45min buyers held the sellers, and then the floor gave, and so did tech relative outperformance of the prior day. No data this time, and MU earnings expectations were very negative to start with – the company did beat in line with my expectations, yet it didn‘t spark a relief rally to speak of.
CPI is likely to come in low if oil, oil products and shelter are any clues (clearly did, 2.6% is too comfortably low, too printable) – and that would spark (that‘s what I told clients even before MU earnings) a relief rally in S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which would however manage to take ES to the troubled 6,815 (Mar contract) area, where the next direction will be picked (6,850 will be tough to get to in one go, no matter the relatively better Nasdaq internals even accounting for yesterday).
Tuesday‘s buying spree into the close was erased with ease – it‘s certainly telling how MU earnings were faded, and even GOOGL or ASML struggling to hold the line yesterday (or HOOD and TSLA wild swings).
The volatility metrics are at odds with each other, and at least the bond market isn‘t afraid of CPI (it shouldn‘t be afraid).
Author
Monica Kingsley
Monicakingsley
Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.
