No Need for the Fed to Budge

U.S. Review

No Need for the Fed to Budge

• Inflation picked up in March, with the CPI rising 0.4% and strengthening to 1.9% yr/yr. The trend in inflation remains tame, however, with consumer prices ex-food and energy edging down to 2.0% on a year-ago basis.
• Small business optimism was little changed in March and remains noticeably below last year’s levels.
• Job openings fell sharply in February, while initial jobless claims fell to a new cycle low the first week of April. The late timing of Easter may be holding down the latest claims data, leading us to believe that the overall pace of hiring is likely to remain slower than last year.

Global Review

Global Growth: Take the Good with the Bad

• The past week has been a mixed bag on the global front, but one which might be considered an improvement considering the pervasive pessimism that has prevailed in recent weeks.
• Starting on a subdued note, the IMF cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 3.3%, which would be the slowest growth since 2016.
• The U.K news was better, with February services and industrial activity both rising, although an extension to the U.K.’s Brexit deadline could still growth slow going forward. Eurozone industrial output was also less bad than feared, and potentially consistent with an increase in Q1 industrial activity.

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