No jobs doesn't stop markets

USD: Dec '25 is Down at 98.960.  

Energies: Jan '26 Crude is Down at 59.44.

Financials: The Mar '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 9 ticks and trading at 115.10.

Indices: The Dec '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 23 ticks Higher and trading at 6884.00.

Gold: The Feb'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4240.60.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.   Currently all of Europe is trading Lower except the German Dax.

Possible challenges to Traders                                              

• No Major Economic news to speak of.
• Lack of Major Economic news.                                                                      

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no major news pending.   The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Mar '26 and the Dow is now Mar '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts 

ZT -Mar 26 - 12/05/25

Dow - Dec 2025- 12/05/25

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets an Upside bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow climbed Higher by 104 points, and the other indices gained ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

On Friday there was much trepidation as no Job numbers were released for November' 25.  As stated previously that will be released on Tuesday, December 16.  The markets moved Higher anyway.  Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?