NFP report in focus

Frank Walbaum FX Strategies.Asia

Important news for the day

Fri, 09th, 14:30 CET CA Unemployment Claims.
Fri, 09th, 14:30 CET US Nonfarm payrolls, Average hourly earnings.
Fri, 09th, 16:00 CET US Prelim. consumer sentiment.

NFP in focus

The Nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show that 66.000 jobs have been added to the US economy. While about a year ago number have been in the range of 150.000 jobs and above the momentum seems to fade further currently. Hence the Fed is expected to continue with their path of further rate cuts should numbers disappoint and weaken further. The impact of the longest shutdown in US history might also still show some impact, here. On the other hand, a better reading might help the Dollar. Currency pairs like the EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD might continue their current slide. That, in turn, might also cause equities to weaken.

Venezuelan Oil

The debate around Venezuela keeps on going further after the US had captured President Maduro. The story around the oil market is stirring up momentum. Some expect that US companies might profit massively from the move of the US government, while in general oil prices might weaken. Venezuela currently sits on the biggest oil reserves globally as reports show. If the US can tap into that this might support the country with the supply of energy despite the global discussion to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Currently, oil prices are moving higher while the market seems to be capped at the USD 59.00 level. The general trend based on monthly charts continues to look bearish, while positive momentum in the short- run might continue to push markets higher.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities positive, USD stronger, crypto sideways, oil positive, Silver positive, Gold positive.

Author

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.