Muted price action despite plethora of GDP and CPI data for Europe

Notes/Observations

- Heavy data day for Europe but price action was mostly muted.

- GDP data registered mostly contractions for European countries (Germany, Italy, Spain) and surprise growth for France (Beats: France, Italy) In-line: Spain; mixed: Germany).

- EU CPI data continued to edge towards the ECB target.

- Companies due to report during the NY morning include Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Aon, CBOE, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Clorox, Chevron, Fannie Mae, Goodyear, W.W. Grainger, Huntsman, Illinois Tool Works, Johnson Controls, Lazard, L3Harris, LyondellBasell, Moog, Newell, Pitney Bowes, Piper Sandler, Phillips 66, Restaurant Brands, Weyerhaeuser, Exxon.

Asia:

- China Apr PMI Manufacturing (Govt Official) registered its 13th month of expansion ( 51.1 v 51.8e).

- China Apr Caixin PMI Manufacturing registered its 12th month of expansion ( 51.9 v 50.8e).

- Japan Apr Final PMI Manufacturing confirmed its 3rd consecutive expansion (53.6 v 53.3 prelim.

- Japan Mar Jobless Rate: 2.6% v 2.9%e.

- Japan Apr Tokyo CPI Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.2%e.

- Japan Mar Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +2.2% v -2.0%e; Y/Y: +4.0% v -0.6%e.

- Japan Fin Min Aso stated that the Central Govt would disburse aid to regional govts; Needed to maintain market trust in Fiscal balance. Fiscal health worsening under coronavirus.

Coronavirus:

- Total global cases 150.1M (+0.6% d/d); total deaths: 3.16M (+0.5% d/d).

Europe:

- Spain Recovery Plan said to be too optimistic on its growth forecast.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.10% at 439.20, FTSE +0.31% at 6,983.15, DAX +0.54% at 15,243.45, CAC-40 +0.04% at 6,304.79, IBEX-35 +0.15% at 8,836.00, FTSE MIB -0.12% at 24,244.50, SMI +0.11% at 11,091.51, S&P 500 Futures -0.26%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly higher but later slipped to trade mixed; better-performing sectors include materials and telecom; sectors tending lower include financials and consumer discretionary; Denmark, Greece closed for holiday; KKR confirms sale of The Bountiful Company to Nestle; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Aon, Huntsman, Clorox and LyondellBasell.

Equities

- Financials: Sabadell [SAB.ES] +5% (earnings), BBVA [BBVA.ES] -2% (earnings), Barclays [BARC.UK] -5% (earnings), BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] -2% (earnings).

- Healthcare: AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +4% (earnings).

- Industrials: Safran [SAF.FR] +2% (earnings), Signify [LIGHT.NL] +7% (earnings).

Speakers

- Germany Labor Min Heil stated that he was not expecting any large wave of insolvencies in the country.

- Norway and UK said to end talks on fisheries without any agreement.

- Thailand Central Bank to assess the impact of the pandemic at its policy decision on Wed, May 5th.

- Russian Energy Ministry said to propose banning gasoline exports for three months.

Currencies/Fixed Income

- Slightly higher US yields helped to stabilize the USD but the greenback remained on track to register its fourth straight weekly decline and its longest weekly streak of losses since last July. The USD softness being attributed to Fed Chief Powell's acknowledgment that it needed further evidence of "substantial further progress" toward recovery to warrant a change to its ultra-loose monetary settings.

- EUR/USD brushed aside various Q1 GDP readings and ignored the prospect of a double-dip recession in the region. Dealers appeared to be looking at recent data reports that suggested an underlying strength and an accelerating recovery for the region. The overall take was that the region lockdown-resilient economy would soon exit recession as businesses and consumers should begin fueling a recovery in 2Q.

- GBP/USD holding above the 1.39 level with the focus shifting to next week’s BOE rate decision. The big question is whether the BOE would begin tapering its QE bond-buying (like Canada did earlier this week).

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: +8.2% v -5.8% prior.

- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.0%e.

- (FR) France Mar Consumer Spending M/M: -1.1% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: 18.7% v 19.9%e.

- (UK) Apr Nationwide House Price Index M/M: 2.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 7.1% v 5.0%e.

- (FI) Finland Feb Final Trade Balance: -€0.4B v -€0.3B prelim.

- (NO) Norway Mar Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9% prior.

- (ZA) South Africa M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.6% v 7.0%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: -1.5% v +0.7%e.

- (CH) Swiss Mar Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +22.6% v -6.6% prior.

- (FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e.

- (FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e.

- (FR) France Mar PPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 1.9% prior.

- (ES) Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -4.3% v -4.3%e.

- (ES) Spain Mar Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: +14.9% v -5.0%e; Retail Sales (unadj) Y/Y: +18.1% v -9.6% prior.

- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 10.1% v 10.3%e.

- (CH) Swiss Apr KOF Leading Indicator: 134.0 v 119.5e.

- (AT) Austria Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +0.2% v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.7% v -5.9% prior.

- (AT) Austria Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.1% v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0% prior.

- (AT) Austria Mar PPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 0.9% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Q1 Advance GDP (1st reading) Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.6%e.

- (TR) Turkey Mar Trade Balance: -$4.7B v -$4.7Be.

- (HU) Hungary Mar PPI M/M: 1.9% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 9.6% v 8.1% prior.

- (TH) Thailand Mar Current Account Balance: -$0.8B v -$1.0Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): -$5.2B v -$0.2B prior; Trade Account Balance: $3.4B v $2.1B prior; Exports YoY: +15.8% v -0.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: +15.1% v +23.9% prior.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 199.9K v 202.4K tons prior.

- (TW) Taiwan Q1 Advance GDP Y/Y: 8.2% v 6.0%e.

- (DE) Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -1.7% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.6%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: -3.0% v -3.2%e.

- (IT) Italy Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.7%e.

- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) May Daily FX Purchases (NOK): -1.8B v -1.8B prior.

- (NO) Norway Apr Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.1%e.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 23rd (RUB): 13.99T v 14.01T prior.

- (PL) Poland Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.8%e (moved above target range and highest reading since 2012 ).

- (CZ) Czech Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.9% v 11.9% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Mar Foreign Tourist Arrivals Y/Y: +23.7% v -69.0% prior.

- (ES) Spain Feb Current Account Balance: -€1.7B v -€1.0B prior.

- (PT) Portugal Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -3.3% v -1.6%e; Y/Y: -5.4% v -6.1% prior.

- (PT) Portugal Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.4% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5% prior.

- (PT) Portugal Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.1% prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.0%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e; CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.1% v 8.3%e.

- (BE) Belgium Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.7% prior.

- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e.

- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e.

Fixed income Issuance

- None seen.

Looking Ahead

- (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (SL) Sri Lanka Apr CPI Y/Y: 4.5%e v 4.1% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.4% prior.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £1.0B and £2.0B respectively).

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0%e v +3.3% prior; Y/Y: -4.0%e v -4.3% prior.

- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Apr 23rd: No est v $582.4B prior.

- 07:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 3-month and 6-month bills.

- 08:00 (IN) India Mar Eight Infrastructure (key) Industries: No est v -4.6% prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Trade Balance (ZAR): 23.6Be v 29.0B prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): -50.5Be v -12.8B prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar National Unemployment Rate: 14.6%e v 14.2% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

-08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming bond issuance.

- 08:30 (US) Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI): 0.7%e v 0.7% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar Personal Income: +20.2%e v -7.1% prior; Personal Spending: +4.1%e v -1.0% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): +3.7%e v -1.2% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Deflator M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.6% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Core Deflator M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.4% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb GDP M/M: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.3%e v -2.3% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Industrial Product Price M/M: 1.6%e v 2.6% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 2.0%e v 6.6% prior.

- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -43.1Be v -41.0B prior; Primary Budget Balance: +2.1Be v -11.8B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 61.4%e v 61.6% prior.

- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Unemployment Rate: 10.6%e v 10.3% prior.

- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 20.0%e v 4.0% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 4.7% prior.

- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -3.4% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: +2.0%e v -0.6% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 430.1K tons prior.

- 09:45 (US) Apr Chicago Purchase Managers (PMI): 65.3e v 66.3 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Apr Final University of Michigan Confidence: 87.5e v 86.5 prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 4.596T prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar National Unemployment Rate: No est v 15.9% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 17.4%e v 18.1% prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Exports: $3.2Be v $3.0B prior.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Fitch on Germany; DBRS on Italy).

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 1.75%.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Wages M/M: No est v 3.3% prior.

- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Apr Trade Balance: $3.1Be v $4.2B prior; Exports Y/Y: 42.0%e v 16.5% prior (revised from 16.6%); Imports Y/Y: 29.6%e v 18.8% prior.