Kshitij Consultancy Services Team
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Lower US ADP Employment rate led to fall in the Dollar Index towards 104. The Index can trade within 104.50-104 for the next few sessions while Euro is headed towards 1.09 which if breaks on the upside can extend to 1.0930/50 before coming off again within the 1.09-1.08 range. EURJPY and USDJPY looks ranged within 168-170 and 154-156.50 respectively. USDCNY may remain stable below 7.25. Aussie and Pound trade higher but can soon dip if the current rise does not sustain. EURINR fell from 91.20, unable to sustain the rise. While below 91, it can trade within 89.50-91 region. USDINR is likely to sustain trade within 83.20-83.60 region.
The US Treasury yields have come down further and are below their intermediate supports. There is room to fall further from here in the near-term before a reversal is seen. The German yields have also dipped below their intermediate supports. They can also see an extended dip from here before resuming their broader uptrend. The ECB meeting outcome today is important to watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined below 7.1%. They have to sustain above their immediate support to rise back again. Else they can move back into the earlier sideways range again.
Dow Jones is heading up towards 39000 as expected. A rise past 39000 is needed for increased bullishness. DAX broader outlook will remain bullish as long as it holds above 18400-18200. Nifty has recovered well above 22500 and while this sustains, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Nikkei has bounced back towards 39000 and has scope to break above it and rise further while above the support at 38000. Shanghai can rally towards 3150 as long as it holds above 3050.
Commodities have recovered well. Crude prices has recovered a bit but have resistance ahead, which if holds, can keep our bearish view intact. Gold has moved up towards it upper end of the range. Need to see it it breaks higher or not. Silver has bounced back but needs to rise past 31 to strengthen the bullish momentum. Copper has bounced above 4.60 and while the bounce sustains, a further rise towards 4.7-4.8 can be seen. Natural Gas looks ranged between 2.5-3.0. All eyes are on ECB meeting today where the central bank is expected to deliver a rate cut.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD edges higher to 0.6500 neighborhood; upside seems limited
AUD/USD is moving away from over a two-week low touched the previous day and eyeing the 0.6500 psychological mark amid renewed USD selling. However, the divergent Fed-RBA expectations, rising geopolitical tensions, and trade-related uncertainties should cap the risk-sensitive Aussie.
USD/JPY retreats from monthly top amid reviving BoJ rate hike bets
USD/JPY drifts lower following the release of strong consumer inflation figures from Japan, which reaffirms bets that the BoJ will hike interest rates in the coming months. Moreover, rising geopolitical tensions offset dovish-sounding BoJ meeting minutes and benefit the safe-haven JPY, weighing on the pair amid a weaker USD.
Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid mixed cues
Gold price remains close to a one-week low touched on Thursday, although a combination of factors continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion. Rising geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties serve as a tailwind for the safe-haven XAU/USD amid a modest decline in the USD.
HYPE drops 7% despite Lion Group's $600 million Hyperliquid treasury announcement
Hyperliquid declined 7% on Thursday after Nasdaq-listed Lion Group Holding revealed that it secured $600 million from investment firm ATW Partners to initiate its HYPE treasury reserve.
In the Eurozone, inflation is also a monetary phenomenon
Monetary aggregates continue to be closely monitored by the European Central Bank (ECB), a sign that, despite the passage of time and the increasing complexity of financing circuits, quantitative theory remains relevant.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.