Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD not done with record highs

XAU/USD Current price: $4,437

• Mounting tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven Gold.
• The United States will publish the Q3 Gross Domestic Product on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD maintains its positive momentum in the near term, higher highs likely.

Spot Gold soared at the beginning of the week, reaching record highs of around $4,400 during American trading hours. The bright metal soared on the back of risk aversion, the latter triggered by renewed tensions in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, Israel announced that Iran has likely resumed its ballistic program, after the Islamic Republic conducted missile tests across the country. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he will brief United States (US) President Donald Trump about the options of resuming attacks on Iran. Trump warned Iran against reconstituting its ballistic missile or nuclear programs just a week ago.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remained negative after investors assessed the latest US macroeconomic figures and the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. Tepid employment figures, persistent inflationary pressures, and a cautious Fed continuously dent demand for the American currency.

The focus now shifts to Tuesday, when the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The country is expected to have grown at an annualized pace of 3.2%, a quite encouraging figure following the 3.8% posted in the second quarter. The GDP Price Deflator, a measure of underlying inflation, will also be closely watched by market participants.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD is overbought and trading at around $4,437. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is gaining upward traction above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, which are also heading higher, all of which hints at additional gains ahead. The 20 SMA sits at $4,355.45, offering immediate dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator has partially lost its upward strength. Still, it remains well above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is also losing strength at 76. A pause or a pullback could emerge, but buyers will likely add on dips.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is up roughly 2.3% and aiming to extend its gains. The 20-day SMA climbs above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, with all three rising and price holding firmly above them. This alignment underscores a robust uptrend, with the 20-day SMA at $4,250.69 offering critical dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator heads firmly north, well above its midline, while the RSI does the same at 78, without signs of exhaustion despite overbought conditions. The bullish bias would remain intact as long as the price stays above the rising averages.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)