EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls retain control despite mounting risk aversion

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1745

Geopolitical tensions undermine the mood but fail to support the US Dollar.
The United States will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q3 GDP on Tuesday.
EUR/USD aims north in the near term, could retest the 1.1800 mark.

The EUR/USD pair advances on Monday, currently trading at around 1.1740 amid prevalent US Dollar (USD) weakness. Market players seem to be ignoring increased risk aversion, or at least, not going for the safe-haven Greenback despite mounting tensions in the Middle East. Indeed, Gold prices have reached record highs, reflecting the ongoing dismal mood.

Weekend headlines indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is worried about Iran expanding its ballistic missile program, and plans to brief United States (US) President Donald Trump about the options of resuming attacking Iran.

Other than that, the winter holidays’ doldrums are likely to maintain the FX board lifeless. The macroeconomic calendar has little to offer on Monday and will remain scarce throughout the week, except for the release of the preliminary estimate of the US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, the risk for EUR/USD skews to the upside. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) holds above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, and all three edge higher, with the 20 SMA at 1.1726 offering immediate dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicators aim higher within neutral levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator prints 58 and edges higher, keeping the tone positive and hinting at higher highs ahead. The short-term bias would stay positive while the pair holds above the mentioned 20 SMA.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD's bullish case is even clearer. The 20-day SMA climbs above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, with the shorter one currently at 1.1670. Buyers are likely to defend the downside around the later should the pair retreat. Meanwhile, an ascending 100 SMA stands at 1.1656, reinforcing the price region. Finally, the Momentum indicator aims north above its midline while the RSI also advances, currently at 65, favoring a continued advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness

Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.