Morning briefing: The Euro continues to hold respective ranges of 102.00-100.00 and 1.1100-1.1300
The Dollar Index and the Euro continues to hold their respective ranges of 102-100 and 1.11-1.13. A break below 100 in index can drag it further to 98-96, while Euro can head towards 1.14 and higher on a break past 1.13. EURINR above 95 has a scope to rise back towards 97-98. EURJPY and USDJPY are trading near their immediate supports around 162 and 144 respectively. While the support holds, a bounce back is anticipated in both the pairs. AUDUSD can trade within the range of 0.635-0.650 for a while. The USDCNY can have immediate upside limited to 7.2250/23. Pound for now can trade within the range of 1.34-1.32. The USDINR can have downside limited to 85.25-85.00 and can eventually rise back towards 86.00.
The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply from their intraday highs on Monday. The resistances are holding well. That keeps alive the chances of seeing a fall from here in the coming days. The German yields sustain lower. Support is near current levels. While that holds, the yields can rise back and keep the bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI has inched up. But resistance ahead can cap the upside. The broader view continues to remain bearish, and the yield can fall more going forward.
Most indices have moved up. The Dow has moved up shrugging off the initial dips after a credit rating cut by the Moody and can rise towards 43000 while Dax can test immediate resistance at 24000 from where a correction is possible. Nifty can rise towards 25500-26000 in the medium term while above 24800/600. Nikkei is bullish towards 38000-39000 while above immediate support at 37500. Shanghai can re-test resistance at 3400 while above 3350.
Crude prices have rebounded, supported by Dollar weakness and key moving average support levels, with potential to rise further if the support holds. Gold remains firm above support and could head towards $3,300–$3,350, while Silver stays range-bound between $32-$34. Copper is testing resistance but may decline if unable to break above. Natural gas, after hitting support near $3.00, may see a rebound towards $3.30–$3.60.
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Author
Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.
