Morning briefing: President Trump announced that the deal with Iran is complete

President Trump announced that the deal with Iran is complete and he authorises the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US Naval blockade. While the agreement is made, it is expected to be signed on Friday to take effect. The Forex market looks stable and could react slowly to the positivity around the news as Iran still expresses its mistrust on the US. The Dollar Index is trading just above 99.55 which needs to break to fall lower while Euro has scope to rise to 1.17 on a sustained rise above 1.16. EURINR can decline to 110/109 while EURJPY has resistance at 186 which could hold and produce a rejection. USDJPY is likely to trade within the 159-161 range. USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.75 while Aussie can test 0.71-0.7150 before falling off from there later. Pound can move to 1.3550 before falling from there towards 1.3250-1.3200. USDINR is likely to open with a gap down but it needs to break below 94.80 for hopes of a decline towards 94.50 or lower. Watch price action today.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down sharply. The US and Iran agreeing for a peace deal has dragged the oil price lower. That is weighing on the yields. The Treasury yields are coming close to their support. Failure to bounce back from there can trigger an extended fall. The German yields on the other hand have room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below the support as expected. While this sustains, the yield can fall more from here.

Global equities have surged sharply after President Trump announced a peace agreement with Iran, boosting risk sentiment across markets. Dow and DAX have moved higher in line with improving optimism and can rise further towards 53000 and 25500 respectively. Nifty can see a gap up opening and has scope to rise towards 24000 in the coming sessions. Nikkei has exceeded expectations and, if it breaks above 70000, can advance towards 70500-71000. Shanghai has also strengthened on the positive sentiment and can rise further towards 4100-4150.

Crude prices have fallen sharply after Trump announced a peace agreement between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen, easing concerns over supply disruptions. Brent and WTI need to sustain below $85 to extend losses towards $75-$70. Gold and Silver have recovered from recent lows and can rise further towards $4500-$4600 and $72-$74 respectively. Copper has bounced back above $6.50 and can extend gains towards $6.70-$6.75. Natural Gas remains weak but is holding above key support near $3.00, keeping the broader $3.00-$3.50 range intact.