Kshitij Consultancy Services Team
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Dollar Index continued to decline further amid the higher speculations among the markets for a US rate hike in September and a possible intervention by BOJ yesterday to protect the Yen. Further if the fall continues a test of 103-102 could be seen in the Dollar Index. Euro on the other hand is headed towards 1.10. Watch out for the ECB meeting scheduled today where markets expect rates to remain unchanged. USDJPY and EURJPY have recovered well above their respective supports of 157-156 and 171/170.50 but still needs to see a strong rise past current levels to rise back in the coming sessions. USDCNY above 7.25/24, can head towards 7.28 in the medium term. Aussie and Pound if sustained above current levels, can head towards 0.68/6850 and 1.32 respectively. USDINR can continue to trade between 83.35-83.65 region with bias to the upside. Slight fall can be possible today on stronger Euro and a weaker Dollar. EURINR has risen past 91 and if sustained can extend it further towards 92-93.
The US Treasury yields have dipped below their support. This keeps intact our view of seeing an extended fall in the coming days. The German yields are at their key supports. We expect the yields to bounce back from here and keep the broader uptrend intact. The ECB meeting outcome today will be important to watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue to fall in line with our expectation. They have room to test their supports. Failure to bounce back from that support can drag them further lower.
Dow Jones has surged breaking above 40250 and has scope to target 42000. DAX continues to fall over the last 3 sessions but downside could be limited to 18400-18300. Nifty remains bullish to target 24700-25000. Nikkei and Shanghai have fallen sharply. Nikkei might fall towards 39000 while Shanghai might get support at 2900 and trade between 2900-3000 for a while.
Crude prices have recovered sharply but have resistance ahead which may hold and keep them range bound for a while. Gold and Silver can fall towards 2400 and 29.70/50. Copper is near its key support. Need to see if that holds or Copper continues to fall. Natural gas is heading down towards 2.0. We expect 2.0-1.9 to holds and produce a bounce back from there. Key focus is on the ECB meeting today.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD bounces off lows, back near 1.1330
EUR/USD meets daily support around the 1.1300 neighbourhood, managing to regain pace and revisit the 1.1330 region. Sentiment turned after President Trump proposed a “straight 50% tariff” on European imports, undermining the pair’s bullish momentum.
GBP/USD eases from tops, revisits the 1.3500 zone
GBP/USD benefits from broad US Dollar weakness, climbing to its highest level since February 2022 past 1.3500 at the end of the week. UK retail sales data surprised to the upside in April, lending extra wings to the quid.
Gold keeps the bullish tone near $3,350
Gold extends its weekly advance, trading around $3,350 per troy ounce on Friday. The rally in XAU/USD is driven by broad-based weakness in the Greenback, particulalry after President Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on European imports.
Apple stock sinks below $200 after Trump threatens more tariffs Premium
Trump grows irate at Apple's move into India. President claims Apple must produce US-sold iPhone in US or face a 25% tariff. US equity futures slip more than 1% in Friday premarket after Trump threatens the EU with a 50% tariff.
Ripple Price Prediction: Whale accumulation sparks hope as rising exchange reserves signal caution
XRP sustains mid-week recovery as XRP/BTC flashes golden cross for the first time since 2017. Large volume holders increase XRP exposure, indicating rising demand and investor confidence.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.