Morning briefing: Euro nears a critical point facing further decline

The Fed kept rates unchanged as widely expected, but hawkish statements led to a stronger Dollar, taking it above 99. A rise to 100 can be possible in the near term with an immediate range of 100-98 to hold. US markets are closed due to the Juneteenth holiday today. Euro has declined sharply to levels of 1.1450-1.14 but needs to hold to avoid further decline to 1.13 or lower. EURINR has dipped too and could target 99-98.50. EURJPY can test 166-165.50 before attempting to rise back to 167 while USDJPY is mixed and can trade within 144-146 region. USDCNY can hold between 7.17-7.20 unless an upside-break is seen. The Aussie and Pound trade lower on a stronger Dollar. They can test 0.6550-0.64 and 1.33 respectively in the near term. USDINR has important resistance at 86.60 below which a pullback towards 86.25-86.00 can be seen in the near term. Failure to decline from 86.60 can be bullish towards 87 (less likely at the moment.

The US Treasury Yields have closed on a mixed note after the US Federal meeting outcome on Wednesday. The range is intact now on the yields. The bias remains bearish to break the range on the downside and fall. The US Fed kept the rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% and retained its forecast for another 50-bps rate cut this year. However, it has revised its inflation forecast higher for this year citing the uncertainty prevailing over the impact of tariffs. The German yields have come down failing to rise above their resistance. They now look vulnerable to fall more. The 10Yr GoI sustains above its support. A near-term consolidation is possible before an eventual rise happens.

The Dow and Dax trade weak with possible chances to test 41500-41000 and 23000-22500 in the near term from where a bounce can be seen eventually. Nifty has scope to test 24600-24400 before rebounding towards 25000-25200. Nikkei tested 38870 before coming down from there. Trade between 38500-39000 can be seen in the near term. Shanghai has dipped and can see trade within 3400-3350 in the next few sessions.

Crude prices remain bullish amid escalating Middle East tensions, with Brent likely to rise toward $78–$80 and WTI aiming for $74–$78. Gold is testing key support at $3,400, and a break could lead to $3,300, while holding above may push it to $3,500. Silver remains strong with a target of $38–$40. Copper continues to rise within a $4.70–$5.00 range, and Natural Gas is moving up toward $4.00–$4.20 as expected.

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