Silver futures face key test after H4 expansion into upper price structure

Silver’s H4 structure shows momentum exhaustion near upper levels, with two-way trade emerging around a key pivot.

Context

This update follows the previous MacroStructure report based on the long-term daily chart, in which silver traded around 62.00, just above the 60.00 support area on December 14.
This report shifts focus to the 4-hour timeframe, examining how price has interacted with predefined MacroStructure levels during the recent acceleration phase.

Why this matters now

Silver has moved rapidly from a prolonged base into vertical price discovery. The speed of the advance, rather than its size alone, has drawn broader participation. Historically, this is the phase where markets transition from directional expansion into a period of evaluation, as two-sided trade begins to appear and price response becomes more important than momentum.

H4 structure overview

Since breaking out from the 50.00 support zone in November, silver has delivered a five-week impulsive rally. Structurally, the advance has unfolded with minimal resistance.

Price spent approximately seven weeks consolidating between 50.00 and 54.00 before resolving higher. Once the 50.00 level gave way, upside expansion accelerated in stages:

• The move from 57.00 to 66.00 developed over roughly three weeks
• Last week’s advance was the most aggressive leg, extending from 66.00 into the 75.00–84.00 region

This final extension compressed both time and distance, overlapping multiple internal structure zones in a short window.

Key structural observations

• The broader trend remains bullish, but the most recent leg shows signs of momentum exhaustion
• Price entered a major resistance region defined by prior structure expansion
• The rally stalled near Micro 4 (81.34) before rotating lower toward Micro 1 (77.90)

As a result, the market has transitioned into a two-way structure, with 75.78 now established as the central pivot.

With the impulsive leg complete, the market has shifted from expansion to response.

Levels that matter (H4 Framework)

Upside Structure

• Central Pivot: 75.78
• Micro 1: 77.90

Holding above 77.90 keeps the structure constructive, allowing price to re-engage the upper range.
If accepted, the Micro 2–5 zone (79.22 → 82.85) becomes the reference area for interaction with previous highs.

Downside Structure

• A sustained move below 75.78 shifts focus toward the lower rotation zone
• Micro 5 (Lower): 73.85
• Additional support layers sit between 72.34 and 68.90, where prior structure and trend alignment converge

Forward structure notes

From here, price behaviour carries more weight than speed. This region will determine whether the recent advance finds sustained acceptance or pauses to rebuild structure before any further expansion.

Acceptance above 84.00 would signal entry into the next MacroStructure zone. Failure to hold the central pivot keeps the market in a rotational phase following last week’s acceleration.

This is no longer a question of momentum — it is a question of acceptance.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.