Morning briefing: Euro is nearing support at 1.1700

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The reciprocal tariffs deadline ends today. Any new updates on the tariffs front might keep the markets volatile in the near term. The Dollar Index needs a break past 99 to make the outlook bullish. Till then the range of 96-98 can hold. The Euro is nearing support at 1.17. EURINR needs to give a break on either side of its 100-101 range. EURJPY can head towards 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY can broadly trade within the 142-147/48 and 7.14-7.18 region respectively in the near term before a break happens. The Aussie and Pound have risen well from the immediate support around 0.645 and 1.35 level respectively. The pairs can continue to trade within 0.645-0.660 and 1.35-1.38 range. USDINR is holding the range of 86.00-85.50 for now.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. That keeps the door open for them to move up further higher. The German yields have risen further sharply. The bullish view is intact. There is room to rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has inched up and remains well within the sideways range.

The Dow Jones fell sharply on announcements of trade tariffs by Trump for different countries and his proposed tariff announcements on copper imports (50%) and on pharmaceutical products (yet to be announced). Dow can test 43500-43000 before rebounding in the medium term. Dax trades higher and can extend to 24500-25000 in the near term. Nifty too was up yesterday and while above support at 25400, the index can continue to rise towards 25600-25800. Nikkei has dipped slightly while Shanghai has risen sharply to break above the immediate resistance at 3500, However both the indices look bullish for the near term while above 39500 and 3500 respectively.

Crude prices continue to rise, with Brent targeting $74 amid renewed Red Sea tensions, and WTI heading towards $72. Gold is stable above $3,300, with potential to rebound towards $3,450 unless it breaks lower. Silver remains range-bound between $36.50–$37.50, awaiting a breakout. Copper spiked to nearly $5.90 on news of a proposed 50% U.S. tariff and stays bullish above $5.50. Natural gas dipped unexpectedly but could still rise towards $3.50 if the support at $3.30 holds.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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