Morning briefing: Euro can fall towards 1.1500-1.1400

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index has indeed risen past 99 and if sustained, can head towards 100-101 in the near term. While Euro & EURINR can fall towards 1.15-1.14 & 102.50-102.00 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY have declined a bit, still the targets of 180 and 154-155 are kept open for now. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie and Pound need to see an immediate rise past 0.66 and 1.34, else both the pairs can be vulnerable to test 0.65 and 1.32/31 respectively. USDINR continues to remain stuck within 88.60-88.85 region.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The support is holding well. Broadly, it looks like the yields are stuck in a sideways range for now. We may have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move. The German yields have inched up. But still there is room on the downside to test their support before bullish reversal happens. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and can rise in the coming days.

The Dow, Dax and the Nifty are all headed towards their respective resistances at 47000, 25000 and 25500 which if held can take the indices down in the coming days. Watch price action near the mentioned resistance levels. Shanghai also has similar resistance at 4000 and can see trade within 3800-4000 for the near term. On the other hand, The Nikkei, having broken the crucial resistance at 48000, seems to be gradually rising towards 50000 and looks bullish for now.

Brent and WTI continue to fall towards $64 and $60, with deeper losses possible if supports break. Gold stays above key support at $3950-3900, keeping the upside view intact, while Silver may test $46 before rebounding. Copper remains rangebound and needs a clear break above $5.25 or below $5.00 for direction. Natural Gas continues to weaken and could slip further towards $3.20-3.15 in the near term.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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