Morning briefing: Euro can fall back towards 1.09-1.0850

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index has immediate resistance at 103.80/104 which can be tested soon before topping out. At the same time, Euro can fall back towards 1.09-1.0850. Immediate upside for USDJPY and EURJPY can be capped up at 148/148.50 and 162/163 respectively and they can resume their downtrend in the medium term either from current levels or after testing the upside targets. Pound is holding well below the immediate resistance around 1.2750/28 and is likely to fall towards 1.26. The Aussie needs to break above 0.66 to turn bullish, else can remain ranged within 0.66-0.6450/64 for some time. USDCNY can trade within 7.18-7.16 but a break below 7.16 could drag it lower towards 7.14. EURINR could test the supports near 91.50 and 91 before possibly bouncing back towards 92. USDINR could see a dip to 83.85/80 before attempting to rise back towards 84 again in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have come down as expected after testing their resistances. A further fall from here will indicate the resumption of the broader downtrend and can drag the yields lower in the coming days. The German yields have turned down again. The bearish view is intact, and more fall is on the cards. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable and are stuck in a narrow range. The bias is negative to break the range on the downside eventually and fall going forward.

Dow Jones remains higher but could face resistance in the 39800-40000 region. DAX can get a corrective rise to 18000 and then a fall back might be seen. Nifty might trade within 24500-24000 for some time while it stays below 24500. Shanghai looks vulnerable to break below 2850 and fall towards 2835-2800.

Brent and WTI continue their rally and can potentially target $80-81-82 (Brent) and $78-80 (WTI). Gold, Silver and Copper have dipped slightly but all have key immediate supports, while above which, they can potentially target 2500-2550, 29.00-29.50 and 4.2-4.3 respectively. Natural Gas remains bullish for the near term.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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