Morning briefing: Euro can fall back towards 1.09-1.0850

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index has immediate resistance at 103.80/104 which can be tested soon before topping out. At the same time, Euro can fall back towards 1.09-1.0850. Immediate upside for USDJPY and EURJPY can be capped up at 148/148.50 and 162/163 respectively and they can resume their downtrend in the medium term either from current levels or after testing the upside targets. Pound is holding well below the immediate resistance around 1.2750/28 and is likely to fall towards 1.26. The Aussie needs to break above 0.66 to turn bullish, else can remain ranged within 0.66-0.6450/64 for some time. USDCNY can trade within 7.18-7.16 but a break below 7.16 could drag it lower towards 7.14. EURINR could test the supports near 91.50 and 91 before possibly bouncing back towards 92. USDINR could see a dip to 83.85/80 before attempting to rise back towards 84 again in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have come down as expected after testing their resistances. A further fall from here will indicate the resumption of the broader downtrend and can drag the yields lower in the coming days. The German yields have turned down again. The bearish view is intact, and more fall is on the cards. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable and are stuck in a narrow range. The bias is negative to break the range on the downside eventually and fall going forward.

Dow Jones remains higher but could face resistance in the 39800-40000 region. DAX can get a corrective rise to 18000 and then a fall back might be seen. Nifty might trade within 24500-24000 for some time while it stays below 24500. Shanghai looks vulnerable to break below 2850 and fall towards 2835-2800.

Brent and WTI continue their rally and can potentially target $80-81-82 (Brent) and $78-80 (WTI). Gold, Silver and Copper have dipped slightly but all have key immediate supports, while above which, they can potentially target 2500-2550, 29.00-29.50 and 4.2-4.3 respectively. Natural Gas remains bullish for the near term.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

GBP/USD dips below 1.3350 as USD demand surges

GBP/USD extends its intraday slide and closes in on 1.3300 in the American session on Thursday. The pair remains under heavy bearish pressure as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

EUR/USD drops toward 1.1350 post ECB decision

EUR/USD remains under heavy bearish pressure in the second half of the day on Thursday and trades at its lowest level in three weeks below 1.1370. The ECB's cautious tone on policy tightening in the near future and the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength on risk-aversion drag the pair lower.

Gold bulls seem hesitant amid inflation-driven Fed hike bets and bullish USD

Gold consolidates the previous day's heavy losses and remains on the defensive below $4,050 during the Asian session on Friday amid rising expectations of a Fed rate hike, bolstered by energy-driven inflation concerns. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff and US President Donald Trump's new tariffs underpin the US Dollar's reserve currency status, which further weighs on the bullion. The XAU/USD pair, however, sticks to modest weekly gains as traders look to the global flash PMIs for fresh impetus.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

Bitcoin falls as surging Oil prices revive inflation concerns

Bitcoin extends its correction, trading below $65,800 after a modest decline in the previous day. Despite BTC’s fading strength, US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds continued to attract institutional inflows on Wednesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of gains.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.