Morning briefing: EUR/USD path to 1.1600 hinges on 1.1400 break

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is trading within 99.0-100.5 region since last few sessions. A confirmed fall below 99 can open the doors for 98-96. The Euro needs to break past 1.14 to head towards 1.16-1.18, else can initially witness a fall to 1.12. EURINR has immediate support near 95.0-94.5, above which it can bounce back towards 96. EURJPY and USDJPY are trading lower within their range of 164-160 and 145-140 respectively. AUDUSD if fails to sustain above 0.645 can get pulled back within its range of 0645-0.635. The USDCNY has slipped below 7.25 and can extend the fall to 7.20. Pound can trade within 1.35-1.32 region for a while. USDINR is coming off as anticipated. While below 84.50, the pair can trade within 84.50-84.00 region for a while. US Trade Balance data release scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. This eases the downside pressure and the danger of the fall that we have been expecting earlier. The yields now have room to rise further in the coming days. The German Yields remain higher but stable. They have to break their upcoming resistance to go further higher. Else they can fall back and keep the broader downtrend intact. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. A break below the lower end of the range will be very bearish. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow looks bullish with a possible target of 42000-42200 intact. Dax needs to break above 23500 to head towards 24500-24800. Nifty is also bullish and a break above 24600 will see a pick up in upward momentum towards 24700-25000. Nikkei is closed today. Shanghai is trading slightly higher today but can have some scope to test 3260/50 before loving up towards 3300 or higher.

Crude prices saw a slight recovery but remain bearish, with Brent and WTI likely to decline further. Gold bounced back sharply above $3,300 and may rise towards $3,500, while Silver has also turned up, aiming for $34.5. Copper remains strong with potential to test $4.90. Natural gas looks set to rise towards $4.0 if it holds above $3.5.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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