Morning briefing: EUR/USD is headed towards the resistance coming at 1.1700

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is headed to the support coming at 98. The target of 100-101 are kept alive while the Index trades above 98. EURUSD is headed towards the resistance coming at 1.17 which can be tested soon. EURINR has a scope to bounce back towards 102.50-103.00 before eventually coming down. EURJPY can target 178 or even 180 while it trades above 175-174. USDJPY can soon test the support coming at 150 before attempting to bounce back again. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.14-7.12. While the Aussie stays range-bound between 0.645-0.660. The Pound has risen past 1.34 and if sustained, can rise towards 1.35-1.36 levels. USDINR fell sharply to 87.91 yesterday and is trading below 87.75 in the offshore NDF market. If the decline continues, it may test the 87.50-87.25 levels as well.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. While they sustain below their resistance, more fall is possible. The German Yields have declined below their support. That negates our view of seeing a bounce back from the support. The view now turns negative, and the yields can fall further. The 10Yr GoI has broken its support. It can fall further in the coming days.

The Dow looks stable but can test 46500-47000 while the Dax can head towards 25000 while above 24000. Nifty has risen yesterday and can test 25500. Thereafter a rise past 25500 or a decline will pave way for next course of direction. Nikkei could test 49000 if the current rise sustains. Shanghai trades around 3900. A immediate trade range of 3750-4000 looks likely.

Crude prices remain weak, with Brent targeting $61-60 and WTI likely falling towards $57-56. Gold has broken past $4200 to hit a new all-time high near $4236, opening room for a further rise to $4300-4350. Silver remains firm with potential to test $53.00-53.50. Copper is consolidating within $4.9-5.2, awaiting a breakout. Natural gas has fallen to $2.9640 and may rebound towards $3.1-3.2 if $2.9 holds; otherwise, it can drop to $2.8/2.7.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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