Morning briefing: EUR/USD is expected to regain momentum above 1.1700

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index remains bearish below 99.40, with scope to slip towards 98.50 or lower after any near-term test of 99.40. EURUSD is expected to regain momentum above 1.17 and target 1.18 or higher, while Dollar-Yen may rise slowly towards 160 before easing back unless it breaks decisively higher. EURINR and EURJPY retain bullish outlooks towards 112.50 and 186-188 respectively, while USDCNY could eventually break below 6.72 towards 6.70. Aussie could target 0.72-0.73 while Pound could face initial resistance near 1.37. USDINR may remain sideways between 95.50 and 95.75, a break above 95.75 would open chances of testing 96-96.30.

The US Treasury and the German Yields continue to sustain higher but are stable. The Treasury Yields remain bullish and can rise more. The US PCE data release tomorrow will need a close watch. The German Yields have some room to rise from here. A corrective fall is possible thereafter before the upside extends further. The 10Yr GoI is holding above its intermediate support. That keeps the upside open to see more rise before the broader downtrend resumes.

Global equities remain mixed. Dow and DAX are holding a constructive bias and can rise towards 53500-54000 and 26250-26500 respectively. Nifty remains positive above the key 24100 support and can move towards 24400 over the week. Nikkei continues to face resistance near 66000 and remains vulnerable to a decline towards 64500-64000. Shanghai remains weak below 3900 and can decline further towards 3800 in the near term.

Commodities remain broadly constructive, with Brent and WTI likely to remain range-bound within $80-$95 and $75-$90 respectively. Gold continues to strengthen in line with expectations and can rise further towards $4750-$4800. Silver can advance towards $70-$75, while Copper can rise towards $6.65-$6.75. Natural Gas has reached $2.80 as expected and can extend its gains towards $3.00 in the coming sessions.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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