Morning briefing: Can EUR/USD hit 1.1900? Recovery hinges on 1.1850 clearance

The DXY can trade within 98.50-96.00 for now. EURUSD has recovered but a rise past 1.1850 will be needed to head towards 1.19 and above. EURINR has a scope to rise back towards 108 and higher while it remains above the support coming around 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 182-186 range. While USDJPY has risen past 156 and if sustained, can test 158 in the coming sessions. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.69-0.71 region. While Pound can attempt to bounce towards 1.38 if it sustained above 1.36. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. IN Services PMI & US ADP Employment data are scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. They are range bound now and are going up within that. We expect the yields to make a bullish breakout eventually. The German yields are heading up and can rise further. The danger of seeing a fall back has eased. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down. But support can limit the downside. Outlook is bullish and the yield can rise back and keep the uptrend intact.

The Dow and the DAX have dipped. Although both indices can show a corrective dip, they need to sustain above 49000-48500 and 24000 to gradually turn bullish in the medium term. Nifty opened with a gap up as expected but declined to close below 25800. With 250000-24000 being a strong long term support, we may now expect Nifty to start rising slowly with an initial test of 26500 soon. Nikkei is headed towards 55000 while above 53000. Shanghai manages to hold above 4050 and could show a gradual rise towards 4100-4200. A broad range of 4050-4200 may continue to hold.

Crude prices have bounced back from recent lows amid rising US-Iran tensions. Brent likely to trade within $65-$70 and WTI within $61-$66 for now. Gold and Silver have rebounded in line with expectations and can continue their upward move towards $5200-$5300 and $88-$89 respectively. Copper has also turned higher and can extend gains towards $6.10-$6.20. Natural Gas has bounced from $3.2 support and can rise further towards $3.4-$3.6 in the near term.