Morning briefing: EUR/USD could slip towards 1.1100

The Dollar Index may test 102.10, while EURUSD could slip towards 1.11, below 1.12. Today's US NFP data release remains crucial. Dollar-Yen remains range-bound; EURJPY and EURINR may rebound above their respective supports. The Aussie could bounce from 0.69, while the Pound and USDCNY face downside risks. USDINR may test 94.20–94.00 before rebounding; a break below 94 would signal further weakness.

The US Treasury Yields continue to move down. Key supports are coming up which can be tested in the coming days. We expect the Yields to sustain above their support and reverse higher going forward. The US unemployment data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields are heading down towards their support in line with our expectation. The Yields are likely to bounce back from their support and resume the broader uptrend. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI has bounced back sharply from its intraday low yesterday. A follow-through rise is needed today to get some breather. Else it can fall back again. Broadly, we can look for the yield to oscillate in a wide trading range in the coming weeks.

Global equities have turned risk-off in the US and Japan on an AI and chip selloff, with the Dow holding near 51,500 and a bounce towards 52,000 possible above it. DAX needs to stay above 26,000 to rise towards 27,000. Nifty remains strong and needs to sustain above 24,400 to rise towards 24,800. Nikkei has fallen sharply and can decline towards 52,000-50,000 while it stays below 62,500. Shanghai holds firm above 3,600, with scope to rise towards 3,750.

Crude oil prices recovered sharply on short covering following fresh attacks on Russian oil refiners. However, downside risk remains toward 90–85 for Brent and 85–80 for WTI while holding below 105 and 95. In precious metals, Gold trades constructively above 4000 with potential to extend gains toward 4200–4250, while Silver's minor pullback leaves room for a bounce toward 54–55. Copper relies on crucial support near 6.20 to prevent further weakness toward 6.1–6.0. Natural Gas pushes higher toward 3.2 to keep its 2.7–3.2 range intact.