Morning briefing: EUR/USD could consolidate within 1.1100–1.1220

The Dollar Index is likely to trade within 101.50–102.30, with a breakout needed to clarify the medium-term outlook, while EURUSD could consolidate within 1.11–1.1220 over the next few sessions. Dollar-Yen could test 158.30 before declining again; a decisive break above that is needed for further gains. EURJPY could rise towards 177/178, whereas EURINR has scope to fall towards 106–105.70. USDCNY continues to head towards 6.65, with a break below opening the way to 6.64/6.62 over the longer term. The Aussie could decline towards 0.69 or lower unless it breaks above 0.7070, while the pound remains bullish towards 1.34/35. USDINR could revisit 95.30–95.50 only if support at 94.90 holds; else a sustained break below 94.90 could instead take it towards 94.50. Watch price action at 94.90 today.

The US Treasury Yields have bounced. But while they remain below their immediate resistance, the chances are high to see a fall first before the broader uptrend resumes. The German Yields are coming down as expected. They have room to fall further and test their support. After that the yields can rise back. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag it down going forward.

Global equities remain divided, with the Dow and DAX vulnerable below 52,000 and 26,000, and downside risk towards 51,500 and 25,500. Nifty stands out on relative strength, holding above 23,000, and a decisive break above 23,200 would open the way towards 23,400-23,600. Nikkei stays under pressure below 64,000, with 62,000 as the next downside marker. Shanghai remains fragile around 3,600, and a decisive break below it would expose 3,500.

Brent and WTI staying on track toward target levels of $116 and $104 respectively. In precious metals, selling pressure has intensified as Gold broke below $4000 to hit a low of 3879 on Friday with risk down toward 3850–3800, while Silver dropped sharply to 48.90 with room to extend losses toward 45. Meanwhile, Copper tested 6.45 as expected and relies on support near 6.4 to cushion further declines for a potential near-term bounce. Natural Gas remains bound within a 2.7–3.2 range.