Morning briefing: EUR/USD can fall towards 1.1550-1.1500 in the near term

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is moving within 99.00-99.50 region. The targets of 100.00-100.50 levels are kept open for now. EURUSD can fall towards 1.155-1.150 in the near term. EURINR can trade within 104.50-105.50-106.00 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can attempt to bounce back towards 184/186 & 160-162 levels while they trade above 183 & 157.50 respectively. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie is holding the 0.6650-0.6750 range for now. Pound remains vulnerable to fall towards 1.33-1.325 while it remains below 1.345. USDINR is currently trading near 90.69 region on the NDF. While above 90.50, a further test to 91.00-91.25 can happen in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply. While this sustains, the yields can rise more in the coming days. The German yields remain lower. The bearish view is intact. The yields have room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is continuing to move up in line with our expectation. The bullish view is intact, and the yield can rise more from here.

The Dow is closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday. However, we need to see the impact of Trump's Greenland tariffs on NATO Nations and if the support at 490000 would hold. The DAX is likely to rebound from the support region of 25200-25000. Nifty may consolidate within 26000-25500 region. Nikkei is down from resistance near 54500 and could test 53000-52000 before rebounding later. Shanghai has dipped. A break below 4050, if seen can open lower target of 3900. Else a rebound from 4050 can take it back towards 4150-4200.

Crude prices are holding firm. Brent and WTI stays above $63/$62 and $58 respectively, supported by Middle East geopolitical tensions, keeping bounce-back chances alive. Gold remains strong above $4,600, pointing towards $4,700–$4,750. Silver has turned sharply higher and looks bullish towards $94–$96. Copper is at a crucial level near $5.8, where a break lower could drag it down, but a hold may trigger a rebound. Natural gas has bounced sharply from $3.02, though it needs to clear break above $3.6 to extend gains, else it may slip back lower.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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