Morning briefing: EUR/USD can be vulnerable to test 1.1500-1.1400

The FED minutes released yesterday dampened the chance of a Dec-25 rate cut and led to the strength in the Dollar. The Dollar Index has risen past 100 and has a scope to extend the rise to 101 or even 102 as well. EURUSD & EURINR have dipped below 1.155 & 102 respectively. If the fall continues further, the pairs can be vulnerable to test 1.15-1.140 & 101 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY are approaching our mentioned targets of 182-183 & 158-160 which can be tested in the near term. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie is trading lower within its 0.660-0.645 range. Pound is coming off as anticipated and can soon test the level of 1.30. USDINR is holding the 88.50-88.80 range for now, but the fall to 88.25 remain into the play while the USDINR trades below 88.80 level. Watch out for the US NFP, Unemployment, Avg hrly earnings, Philifed Index & Existing Home sales data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields are attempting to move up. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of the current range and rise going forward. The Fed meeting minutes release indicating the difference of opinion on the policy decision has raised doubts about getting another rate cut in December. This could support the yields to go up. The German Yields remain higher but stable. They need a strong follow-through rise to go further up from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. But support can limit the downside. The yield is likely to remain inside a sideways range.

The Dow has risen from 45905 and needs to sustain its rise above 46000 to slowly head towards 47000. Nikkei has risen sharply and looks bullish towards 52000 while above 49000. Dax could have room to test 23000 before rising back towards 24000-24500 in the medium term. Nifty has risen to close above 26000 again but has crucial resistance at 26200 which if holds can produce a rejection. A decisive rise above 26200 is needed for medium term bullishness to set in. Shanghai is holding above 3900 and can gradually rise to 4000-4050.

Crude prices stay weak as Brent holds within $66-62 and WTI trades inside $62-58 range for now. Gold is pushing higher above $4000 and can head towards $4150-4250. Silver must hold above $50 to aim for $51-52 or risk a slide to $48-47. Copper stays steady within $5.20-4.90. Natural gas needs a break above $4.7 to target $4.9-5.0 or it may fall toward $4.2-4.0.