Morning briefing: EUR/USD can head towards 1.1800

The FED cut the rates by 25-bps thereby bringing it down to 3.75%. The Dollar Index has turned lower as anticipated and it can test 98-97 before rebounding later. EURUSD & EURINR can head towards 1.18 & 106 in the near term. EURJPY need to sustain above 182 to rise towards 184-185. USDJPY can decline within its 158-154 range. USDCNY can test the support at 7.05 before bouncing back later. AUDUSD need to hold above 0.665 to head towards 0.67-0.68 in the near term. Pound has bounced well and has a scope to test 1.3450-1.350. USDINR is trading near 89.90 region on the offshore. We will have to see as to whether it breaks below 89.75 or holds above it and rebounds toward 90.00–90.25. US Trade Balance data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the Fed meeting outcome last night. The resistance zone has held well. Failure to rise back immediately can drag the yields further lower in the coming days. The Fed cut the rates by 25bps in line with expectation. It has not made any change in its projection for next year. The German yields remain higher. They can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has made a bullish breakout as expected. That keeps the door open for it to rise more going forward.

The Dow rallied after the FED cut rates by 25bps and has signalled slower pace of easing in 2026 with one more rate cut in the next year. The Dow can rise towards 49000 soon but thereafter it has to be seen if it would sustain the rise or fall back towards 47000. DAX looks bullish towards 24500. Nifty closer below 25800 yesterday and could have scope to test 25600 before climbing towards 26000 or higher again. Nikkei needs a sustained break past 51000 to target 52000, otherwise it may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai trades above 3900 today and could head towards 3950 before falling back towards 3800.

Crude prices are hovering near key supports, with Brent close to breaking below $62 and WTI needing a sustained fall below $58 to push lower towards $60 and $56 respectively. Gold is steady inside its $4200-4300 band with room to attempt $4400 later. Silver’s sharp rise keeps the path open for $64-66. Copper remains supported above $5.20 and can head towards $5.50-5.60. Natural gas still carries a near-term downside risk towards $4.50-4.40.