Morning briefing: The Dollar Index is headed towards support around 105.75

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is headed towards support around 105.75. While it holds, we retain our view of seeing a bounce back towards 107-108 in the coming sessions. Euro and EURINR are nearing the mentioned resistance around 1.06 and 89.50 respectively. Watch price action closely around these levels to see whether it holds or not. Aussie needs to see a rise past 0.6550 to become further bullish and Pound if sustained above 1.27, can test 1.2750/70 in the coming sessions. USDCNY has been coming off but if the Dollar Index rises back, then still there could be a scope to see a rise back towards 7.25. Else it could be vulnerable to test 7.20.18 on the downside. The Dollar Yen extended its fall to 149.85. Until a decisive break below 150 is seen, a rise to 154-155 cannot be fully ruled out. EURJPY is coming off in line with our view and can soon test 158-156, while below 164/162. USDINR can remain ranged between 84.50-84.40 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped in the early Asian session today. The view of seeing more fall remains intact. Intermediate supports are there which will need a watch to see if it is halting the fall and triggering a bounce. The German yields are continuing to come down in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI can come down towards the lower end of its broader range. That will delay the breakout and the rise that we have been expecting.

The Dow Jones was closed yesterday in observance of Thanksgiving Day. We keep intact our bearish outlook towards 43000 while below 45000. In Europe, the DAX has risen above 19400 but requires a decisive break above 19600 to set the stage for a rally towards 20000. The Nifty index has dropped below 24000 which now acts as a decent resistance. A break below 23800 could trigger a deeper decline toward the 23650 or lower. A bounce from 23800 and an eventual rise past 24000 is needed to rise in the medium term. The Nikkei continues to struggle, unable to breach 38500 and is trading lower. However, as long as support at 38000–37700 holds, the index is expected to trade within the broader range of 37,700–39,500 before potentially declining further toward 35,000. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite remains steady near 3,300. Sustaining above this level could drive a move higher toward 3,400. Conversely, a decline could see the index retest its support at 3,250.

Brent and WTI prices show stability as the Middle East tension eases off. They can test 71 and 67 respectively in the near term before a bounce back is seen. Gold and Silver have risen but need a sustained break above 2700 and 31 to see higher levels of 2750-2800 and 31.5-32.0 respectively. Copper remains ranged between 4.2-4.05. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 3.4-3.5 for the near term.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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