Morning briefing: Euro may rise to 1.10 while above 1.09

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning!

Dollar Index looks weak towards 103 while Euro may rise to 1.10 while above 1.09. EURJPY could see a small corrective fall to 161 before moving towards 165/166 in the medium term. USDJPY has broken below 150 and could head towards 148. A top seems to have been made at 152. Aussie needs to break above 0.6550 to move higher towards 0.66/67 while Pound is slowly inching up towards 1.26. Watch price action at 88 on USDRUB which if breaks can be strongly bearish. USDCNY plunged sharply and could fall further to 7.15/10 while below 7.20. EURINR has scope to slowly rise towards 92 while USDINR remains stuck within 83.00/10-83.30.

The US Treasury yields are hovering above their key supports. They have to sustain above their support to avoid more fall and keep alive the chances of rising from here. The German yields can dip to test their supports first and then can reverse higher. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are looking weak. They have room to fall more from here.

Dow Jones can see a test of 35400-35500 on the upside before a reversal can happen. DAX remains bullish for the near term. Nifty broder outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 19500. Nikkei lacks strength to rise above the resistance at 33500. Shanghai has bounced back as the support at 3025 held well and can rise further on the upside.

Brent and WTI have risen back sharply but have to overcome the resistance ahead to reduce the downside pressure. Gold has dipped slight but outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 1960. Silver has fallen back failing to rise above 24.30 and can dip further if it remains below 24. Copper look bullish for a test of 3.80. Natural Gas has declined towards its immediate support at 2.9. Need to see if that holds or not.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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