Morning Briefing: Euro has moved above 1.09 and looks bullish

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar Index is ranged below 102 and has some scope to fall to 101 while Euro has moved above 1.09 and looks bullish. Pound can test 1.22 in a correction followed by a rise back to 1.24/25. EURJPY looks bullish to 143 while USDJPY could be ranged below 132. Aussie can test 0.72 on sustained trade above 0.71. USDCNY needs to break and sustain above 6.80 to move up further after its holidays. USDRUB continues to remain within 68-70 region. USDINR rose sharply to close higher yesterday. It is to be seen if it can manage to rise further from here to 81.85-82.00 or fall back to 81.50 or lower levels. EURINR can rise to 89.

The US Treasury and the German yields have declined sharply and can fall more before a reversal is seen. The 10Yr GoI lacks momentum and looks vulnerable for a fall while the 5Yr is mixed and can go either way from here.

Dow is getting support near 33300 which leaves the chances high for it to break above the immediate resistance and rise further on the upside. DAX has declined but may remain bullish while above the support at 15000. Nikkei is hovering below the resistance at 27400. Shanghai remains closed. Nifty continues to remain stuck between 18000 and 18200.

Brent has declined but downside could be limited to $85. WTI has also come down failing to break above the resistance at $82.50. Gold may remain ranged while below the resistance at 1950. Copper is trading in a narrow range of 4.3-4.2 range. Silver is slowing rising within its 22.50-24.50 range.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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