Euro look ranged within 1.06-1.04

Respectively while EURJPY may remain within 145-143. Pound and Aussie can test 1.20 and 0.66 on the downside while upside could be limited to 1.25 and 0.69 respectively. Dollar Yen holds below 138 while USDRUB could range within 60-64. USDCNY is bearish while below 7.05/00 and could slowly move towards 6.90/88. USDINR is likely to hold above support at 82 and bounce towards 83 eventually. Below 82, support is seen at 81.75. EURINR can test 87-88 while above 85.50/86.00.
The US Treasury yields have risen sharply across tenors. While this bounce sustains, a further rise is possible ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The German yields have also risen sharply across tenors. There is room to rise further from here before the overall downtrend resumes. The European Central Bank meeting is on Thursday this week. The Indian 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding higher. A further rise from here will negate the danger of seeing a fall back.
Dow has fallen below 33500 and has scope to test 33000 before revering back from there. DAX is holding well above 14200 and is attempting to bounce back. Nikkei to trade within 28500-27500 for a while. Shanghai remains range bound. Nifty has bounced back a bit on last Friday but needs to gain strength to extend the bounce further on the upside. Else a deeper fall cannot be negated in the coming sessions.
Brent and WTI remains lower but have scope to rebound from the respective crucial supports . Gold and Copper have declined and needs a strong rise past 1820-1825 and 3.90/3.93 respectively to move up higher on the upside. Silver has come down but while above the support at 23.00-22.50, there is scope to rise towards the important resistance on the upside.
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Author

Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

















