Morning Briefing: Dollar Index dragging Euro lower from 1.05 itself

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar Index bounced back well from 105.32 dragging Euro lower from 1.05 itself. EURJPY, Pound and Aussie look ranged within 146-142, 1.22-1.18 and 0.66-0.68 respectively. Dollar Yen too can remain ranged within 137-140 while USDCNY can fall to 7.15 while below 7.25. USDINR can rise towards 82 while above 81.40/50.EURINR can rise from 84.00/84.50 towards 85.50.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly. The upside is likely to be capped and there is room for the yields to fall more from current levels. The German yields remain stable. The view is bearish, and a further fall is likely in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stuck inside their respective sideways range.

Dow has fallen sharply below 34000 and while below it there is room to test 33500-33400 before rising back from there. DAX too has declined sharply and has scope to extend the fall further the current level. Nikkei has scope to target further downside on a sustained break below the support at 28000/27900. Shanghai has risen towards the resistance at 3125. Only a strong break above it could see a further rise in the coming sessions. Nifty can remain in a range of 18350/18400-18600 for some time.

Brent and WTI have rebounded on rumors of OPEC+ production cut. If the bounce sustains, crude prices can target their near term resistance on the upside. Gold has scope to target further upside on a sustained break above 1760. Silver is likely to trade within 20.70-22.00 while above the support at 20.70. Copper looks mixed and could remain in a range of 3.5-3.7 for some time.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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