Mixed bias is a mixed day

USD: Sept '25 is Down at 97.025.  

Energies: Oct '25 Crude is Up at 62.76.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 5 ticks and trading at 117.08.

Indices: The Sep '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 49 ticks Higher and trading at 6500.50.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Down at 3678.50.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.  Currently all of Europe is trading Higher except the London exchange which is Lower.

Possible challenges to traders

• Empire State Mfg. Index is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Lack of Major Economic News.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with no data pending.  The Dow dived Lower at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the ZT climbed Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is still Sep '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barCharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 9/12/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 9/12/25

Bias

On Friday we predicted a Mixed or Neutral Day and the markets didn't disappoint as the Dow dropped 274 points, the S&P lost 3 but the Nasdaq gained 98.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Consumer Sentiment dropped on Friday, which caused a downturn in the markets.  Today the only real news we have is Empire State Manufacturing Index.  That's it; we'll have to wait until FOMC Day on Wednesday to see where the market's heading.