Micron reignites the AI trade as markets eye US PCE

Micron (MU) has single-handedly helped underpin sentiment. Following a couple of red days for tech, the chipmaker’s results landed after the US close yesterday, and the market’s response was notable. The MU stock rallied strongly as the company’s revenue guidance for fiscal Q3 26 blew past analysts’ estimates. 

The knock-on effect has been immediate. US equity index futures jumped, with the Nasdaq 100 currently up 2%, along with the S&P 500 up 0.6%. The read-through into Asia-Pac stocks has also been strong, with South Korea’s KOSPI carving out hefty gains of nearly 6%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 adding nearly 5% and closing in on its all-time high of 72,831.

Oil prices test pre-conflict levels

With progress on a US-Iran peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Brent crude is firmly below its 200-day SMA at US$78.36, testing pre-war levels and now on the doorstep of support at US$72.36.

That’s a meaningful disinflationary signal heading into today’s US PCE data, and is why bond yields eased off their highs from earlier in the week.

Australia jobs beat masks a softer underbelly

The Australian May jobs report hit the wires overnight and, on the surface, looked decent. Employment rose by 40,300, comfortably ahead of the 30,300 estimate, and unemployment ticked down to 4.4% from 4.5%, in line with expectations. 

But the composition is less convincing than the headline suggests. Of that 40,300 gain, just 5,200 was full-time work, with the remaining 35,100 coming from part-time positions – not the kind of mix that points to firms confidently expanding permanent headcount.

Household spending data, also released today, showed a 1.3% MM rise and 5.5% YY growth, clearly a hawkish print. That follows yesterday’s CPI inflation release, which showed trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred underlying gauge, ticking up to 3.6% YY from 3.4%, even as headline YY CPI eased to 4.0% on cheaper fuel. Together, these likely keep the debate over an RBA hike alive in some corners. For the AUD, I would call this a mixed picture: the jobs beat offers some near-term support, but the soft composition caps enthusiasm, while sticky core inflation elsewhere keeps the hawkish case alive underneath.

US PCE inflation numbers eyed 

The US May PCE data lands at 12:30 pm GMT, and is arguably one of the most important prints this week. Heading into the release, economists expect the YY headline and core metrics to reach 4.1% (up from 3.8% in April) and 3.4% (up from 3.3%), respectively, with MM headline and core readings also forecast to increase 0.5% (from 0.4%) and 0.3% (from 0.2%), respectively. 

Ultimately, according to the forecast distribution table, I am looking at a 4.2% upside surprise in the YY headline, with a 3.9% miss. For the YY core print, I am looking for 3.5% to the upside and 3.2% to the downside.

With the Fed’s last meeting perceived as hawkish – with 9 of the 18 officials voting to raise the target rate this year – a hotter-than-expected release today would help reaffirm the pivot toward tighter policy. As of writing, markets are pricing in 16 bps of Fed tightening by year-end – around a 60% probability. 

However, with the USD heavily bid of late and positioning data showing it is one of the most overstretched currencies, with a bullish crowded position, this does open the currency to a downside shock.