Risk trades to a step back to end April but it was a strong month overall. We will have a look at May seasonal patterns. The Canadian dollar was the top performer last week while the yen lagged. CFTC positioning data showed the market slowly warming up to CAD. Last week's Premium trade is in the green and Friday's FX trade to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group is +80 pips in the green. Today is a Bank holiday in the UK, but will be a BUSY WEEK for GBP with the Bank of England meeting raising the debate over the tapering of asset purchases and Scottish Elections, with the latest speculation on Scotland Independence. US ISM manufacturing is next, followed by a Powell speech

Economic data continued to point to economic strength on Friday as the expectations component of the UMich consumer sentiment survey was strong while the income line in the PCE report rose 21.1% in March on stimulus payments.

Month-end flows may have led to some profit-taking but a study showing a single vaccine shot may not offer adequate protection from covid variants also weighed.

The new month kicks off with some strong seasonal patterns. Cable is a particularly notable one – it's fallen in May for 11 straight years. We may have seen some front-running of that with Friday's drop down to 1.3810.

Another theme is dollar strength. At the start of the year, everyone was a dollar bear and that turned out to be a terrible idea, especially after the Georgia primary. The dollar gave back some ground in April but May has been the best month for the DXY for the past 20 years.

On the soft side, it's the second-worst month for the kiwi. For equities the traditional 'sell in May and go away' doesn't hold up. The S&P 500 has risen in May in 7 of the past 8 years.

CFTC commitments of traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR +81K vs +81K prior.

GBP +29K vs +25K prior.

JPY -49K vs -60K prior.

CHF -1K vs +2K prior.

CAD +16K vs +13K prior.

AUD -1K vs -2K prior.

NZD +7K vs +4K prior.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD skyrockets to 1.2150 on poor US jobs figures

EUR/USD has hit a new multi-month peak above 1.2150 after the US reported an increase of only 266,000 jobs in April against nearly one million expected. The dollar is under immense pressure. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD soars toward 1.40 after disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls

GBP/USD has been extending its gains after the US Nonfarm Payrolls badly disappointed with an increase of only 266,000 jobs in April, nearing 1.40. Earlier, sterling benefited from the UK Conservative Party's gains in local elections. 

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD soars above $1,835 after weak Nonfarm Payrolls

Gold has leaped above $1,835 after the US reported an increase of only 266K jobs in April, far below expectations. Lower US yields support the precious metal.

Gold News

Judge reaffirms order SEC must produce documents on Bitcoin, Ether and XRP in Ripple case

Ripple's victory granted the firm access to the SEC's documents on the three leading cryptocurrencies. The regulatory agency recently denied the possession of these documents.

More Dogecoin News

S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Can the Fed pump anymore after weak jobs report

Well, that was an interesting jobs report. Not too many people were forecasting that one. Just in case you missed it NFP were forecast to come in around the 1 million jobs gained but instead the US only added 266k.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures