Markets up, down and all around

USD: Mar '26 is Down at 98.570.  

Energies: Feb '26 Crude is Down at 58.58.

Financials: The Mar '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 18 ticks and trading at 115.07.

Indices: The Mar '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 174 ticks Lower and trading at 6961.50

Gold: The Feb'26 Gold contract is trading Up at 4594.90.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Higher except the Sensex exchange.  Currently all of Europe is trading Lower except the German Dax.

Possible Challenges to Traders                                                  

• FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 12:45 PM EST This is Major.  
• 10 Year Bond Auction Starts at 1 PM EST. This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST after Non-Farm Payrolls was released at that time.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT and YM are both Mar '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Mar 26 - 1/09/26

Dow - Mar 2026- 1/09/26

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias as it was Jobs Friday.  The Dow gained 244 points and the other indices closed Higher as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

On Friday Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 50,000 new jobs created.  The market went Up then Down but finally settled and closed Higher.  There are many reasons for the diversity of direction.  The Ice killings in both Minneapolis and Portland as well as the payrolls not meeting expectations.  The situation in Venezuela and Greenland as well as the threat to invade other countries like Columbia, Mexico and possibly Denmark over Greenland.   Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?