US Dollar: Sept USD is Up at 98.065.
Energies: Sept '19 Crude is Up at 55.24.
Financials: The Sept 30 year bond is Down 60 ticks and trading at 163.21.
Indices: The Sept S&P 500 emini ES contract is 80 ticks Higher and trading at 2911.50.
Gold: The Dec Gold contract is trading Down at 1511.50 Gold is 121 ticks Lower than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Up+ which is not normal but the 30 year Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Currently all of Asia is trading Higher. At this time all of Europe is trading Higher as well.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
-
No Major Economic News.
-
Lack of Major Economic news
Treasuries
We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.
On Friday the ZB made a major move at around 9 AM EST. The ZB hit a High at around that time and the YM hit a Low. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 9 AM EST and the YM was moving Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a High at around 9 AM and the YM was moving Higher at the same time. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better. This represented a Shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 30 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. Please note: the front month for both the ZB and YM contract is now September, 2019 and I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.
Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform
Bias
On Friday we gave the markets an Upside bias as the Bonds and Gold were both trading Lower Friday morning and this usually reflects an Upside day. The markets didn't disappoint as the Dow rose by 307 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Upside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
On Friday we didn't have much in the way of economic reports; at least not nearly as much as we saw on Thursday. However the major report was Building Permits which beat expectations. This alone affects so many different areas: employment, material purchases, appliances, etc. and the markets reacted favorably. Today we have no major economic news so the markets will be left to its own devices. Some may construe Friday as the proverbial Dead Cat Bounce but only time will tell is this is the case.
Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.
In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD keeps range above 1.0800 after German Retail Sales data
EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and continues to move in a tight channel slightly above 1.0800. The data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 1.9% on a monthly basis in February, making it difficult for the Euro to attract buyers.
GBP/USD stays depressed below 1.2650 amid market caution
GBP/USD remains defensive below 1.2650 in European trading on Thursday. The hawkish tone from Fed Governor Christopher Waller keeps the US Dollar afloat amid a cautious trading environment ahead of key US data releases and the Good Friday trading lull.
Gold eyes daily close above $2,200 for a sustained uptrend
Gold price is duplicating the move seen in Wednesday’s Asian trading, as it edges lower below $2,200 early Wednesday. Gold capitalizes on sustained US Dollar strength and a rebounding US Treasury bond yields struggle, as traders take account of the latest hawkish US Fed commentary.
XRP ruling by Judge Torres denied in Coinbase lawsuit, yet another blow to Ripple
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres completely rejected by US Court in Coinbase lawsuit. US Court rejected Coinbase’ motion to dismiss SEC lawsuit, weighing heavily on Ripple’s legal battle.
The other terminal rate: How far will policy rates be cut?
Recent communication by the Federal Reserve and the ECB has made it clear that the first cut in official interest rates is coming. Both central banks are saying the same but the ECB communication is more opaque than that of the Fed.