This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Higher with the exception of The Aussie exchange. Currently all of Europe is trading Higher except the German Dax.

Possible challenges to traders

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 8:15 AM EST. This is Major.
Final Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is Major.
ISM Services PMI is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no real economic reports. The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 30 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for the ZT and YM are both Mar '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Mar 26 - 2/03/26

Dow - Mar 2026- 2/03/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias, but the markets had other ideas as the Dow closed Lower by 167 points and the other indices closed Lower as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday morning it appeared that the markets would migrate Higher as it was correlated in that direction. The markets decided to flip that and close Lower. Ironically enough the indices did veer to the Upside until lunchtime at 12 noon and then plunged Lower. Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD looks vacillating above 1.1800

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses in the low-1.1800s on Wednesday in a context of modest gains in the Greenback. Meanwhile investors continue to assess the latest advanced inflation data in the euro area and the lower-than-expected weekly ADP figures on the US calendar. Later in the day, all the attention should be on the release of the US ISM Services.

GBP/USD keeps the bid bias above 1.3700

GBP/USD builds on Tuesday’s gains, advancing for the second day in a row and reclaiming the 1.3700 barrier and above on Wednesday. Furthermore, Cable’s uptick comes despite decent gains in the Greenback ahead of the BoE’s Super Thursday.

Gold extends the rebound above $5,000

Gold picks up further pace and retests the area above the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s extra advance comes despite the firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the curve, while fresh geopolitical effervescence appears to support the metal’s improvement.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP tick up despite macro uncertainty, retail exodus

Bitcoin rises above $76,000 following an extended decline to $72,946 the previous day as Fed-related headlines keep investors on edge. Ethereum advances toward the $2,300 hurdle amid low retail interest, with futures Open Interest falling to $26.3 billion.

Should investors abandon AI as software stocks slide?

AI is not being abandoned by markets. It is being priced more carefully. Over the past few weeks, the underperformance of software and SaaS stocks has sparked a familiar question: is the AI trade breaking down? The answer is no.

Ripple stabilizes amid mixed signals as ETF inflows resume despite low retail activity

Ripple hovers around the $1.60 pivotal level at the time of writing on Wednesday, reflecting stable but weak sentiment across the crypto market. Intense volatility triggered a brief sell-off on Tuesday, driving the remittance token to pick up liquidity at $1.53 before recovering to the current level.